| 未来气候变化对西南地区地质灾害的可能影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 张娇艳,李扬,王玥彤,李忠燕,黄晨然.未来气候变化对西南地区地质灾害的可能影响[J].高原山地气象研究,2020,40(2):70-77. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张娇艳 李扬 王玥彤 李忠燕 黄晨然 |
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| 作者单位： | 贵州省气候中心,贵阳 550002;贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室,贵阳 550002;贵州省贵阳市气象局,贵阳 550001;贵州省气候中心,贵阳 550002 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201915) |
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| 摘 要： | 本研究利用区域气候模式RegCM4提供的RCP8.5(高排放)和RCP4.5(中排放)情景下的逐日平均气温和降水量，计算并分析了西南地区21世纪不同阶段平均气温、平均降水、连续干旱日数(CDD)、> 20mm的降水日数(R20mm)、连续5天最大降水量(Rx5day)和单日降水强度指数(SDII)相对于参照期(1986～2005年)的变化特征，进而定性地给出未来气候变化对西南地区地质灾害的可能影响。结果表明:未来西南地区因平均气温升高、平均降水量变化、持续干旱变化、强降水变化、降水集中程度变化和单日降水强度变化将导致地质灾害发生的可能性增大，但诱因不同、影响区域有差异；另外温室气体浓度越高，平均气温、平均降水以及相关极端指数相对于基准期变幅基本上都越大，相关地质灾害风险增加的可能性也越大。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 西南地区 地质灾害 气候预估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-01-10 |
Impact of Climate Change on Geological Disaster in Southwest China |
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| Institution: | 1. Guizhou Climate Center, Guiyang 550002, China;2. Guizhou Key Lab of Mountainous Climate and Resources, Guiyang 550002, China;3. Guiyang Meteorological Bureau, Guiyang 550001, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the results of greenhouse gas emission (including RCP8.5 and 4.5) from the RegCM4 over 21st century,the daily mean temperature and precipitation in Southwest China are examined in this study. The mean temperature,mean precipitation,maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD),counts of days with precipitation> 20mm·d-1 (R20mm), maximum 5 day precipitation total (Rx5day) and simple daily intensity index (SDII) over the 21st century are investigated and compared with respect to the period of 1986~2005,respectively. Qualitative assessments are further provided to demonstrate the changes in geological disaster over Southwestern China under the influences of future climatic variation. It is indicated that the possibility of the geological disaster in Southwest China tends to increase in the future due to the changes in the mean temperature,mean precipitation,consecutive dry,heavy precipitation,precipitation concentration and daily precipitation intensity. Nevertheless,the causes and influences depend on the different regional conditions. On the other hand,more geological disasters can be expected if the greenhouse gas concentration becomes higher since it leads to larger variability ranges of the mean temperature,mean precipitation and extreme precipitation indices in comparison to those during the period of 1986~2005. |
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