Modelling the sensitivity of Mediterranean Outflow to anthropogenically forced climate change |
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| Authors: | R B Thorpe G R Bigg |
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| Institution: | (1) School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK E-mail: thorpe@meto.gov.uk, GB |
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| Abstract: | The possible future impact of anthropogenic forcing upon the circulation of the Mediterranean, and the exchange through the
Strait of Gibraltar is investigated using a Cox-type model of the Mediterranean at 0.25° × 0.25° resolution, forced by “control”
and “greenhouse” scenarios provided by the HadCM2 coupled climate model. The current structure of the Mediterranean forced
by the “control” climate is compared with observations: certain aspects of the present circulation are reproduced, but others
are absent or incorrectly represented. Deficiencies are most probably due to weaknesses in the forcing climatology generated
by the climate model, so some caution must be exercised in interpreting the enhanced greenhouse simulation. Comparison of
the control and greenhouse scenarios suggests that deep-water production in the Mediterranean may be reduced or cease in the
relatively near future. The results also suggest that the Mediterranean outflow, may become warmer and more saline, but less
dense, and hence shallower. The volume of the exchange at the Strait of Gibraltar seems to be relatively insensitive to future
climate change, however. Our results indicate that a parameterisation of Gibraltar exchange and Mediterranean Outflow Water
(MOW) production may be able to provide adequate representation of the changes we observe for the purposes of the current
generation of climate models.
Received: 10 August 1998 / Accepted: 11 October 1999 |
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