| 石家庄市空气污染预警天气背景分析及模型的建立 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈静,郭卫红,王素丽.石家庄市空气污染预警天气背景分析及模型的建立[J].气象与环境学报,2007,23(6):62-67. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈静 郭卫红 王素丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.石家庄市气象局 石家庄050081;2.赞皇县气象局 赞皇051230 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京区域气象中心气象科技开发基金项目“石家庄市环境空气质量三级预警技术的研究”资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据石家庄市环境空气质量三级预警标准,系统分析了造成石家庄高浓度污染的天气背景、气象要素特征,建立了高浓度污染的天气模型和预警判别指标;并结合数值预报产品建立了集成预报模式,在此基础上利用数值预报产品提取预警指标,建立了经验指标法定性判别与定量预报相结合的空气污染预警系统。经业务应用表明:系统可以提高高浓度污染的预报准确率,是开展空气污染预警较为有效的方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 空气污染 预警模型 天气背景 集成预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-06-14 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-08-13 |
Analysis and modeling on synoptic background of air pollution in Shijiazhuang |
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| CHEN Jing,GUO Weihong,WANG Suli.Analysis and modeling on synoptic background of air pollution in Shijiazhuang[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2007,23(6):62-67. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Jing GUO Weihong WANG Suli |
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| Institution: | 1.Shijiazhuang Meteorological Bureau;Shijiazhuang 050081;2.Zanhuang Meteorological Bureau;Zanhuang 051230 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the three-level warning standard of air pollution in Shijiazhuang,the synoptic background and meteorological element features which leaded to higher air pollution concentration were analyzed.The weather model and warning indexes of higher concentration air pollution were established.According to numerical forecast productions,some new ensemble forecast models were developed.In addition,warning indexes was extracted.The air pollution warning system was set up in terms of experiential index and quantitative forecast.The warning system could remarkably improve the accurate rate of higher air pollution concentration forecast by real-time use and test in Shijiazhuang,which was an effective method for the pollution warning. |
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| Keywords: | Air pollution Warning model Synoptic background Ensemble forecast |
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