| 阿勒泰地区夏季降水概念模型及预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 庄晓翠,安冬亮,刘大锋.阿勒泰地区夏季降水概念模型及预测模型[J].新疆气象,2008,2(6):16-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 庄晓翠 安冬亮 刘大锋 |
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| 作者单位： | 阿勒泰地区气象台，石河子市气象局 |
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| 摘 要： | 在相关普查及分析各因子物理意义的基础上，建立阿勒泰地区夏季降水概念模型及预测模型，结果表明：夏季500hPa高度场，若极涡偏南、偏强，欧洲到里成海、贝湖到蒙古为脊区，西西伯利亚到巴湖为槽区，西太副高西伸北挺明显，北非副高东伸以及伊朗副高北挺明显，有ElNino或LaNina现象出现，加上前期5月降水量偏多，则该地区夏季降水易偏多，反之易偏少。
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| 关 键 词： | 夏季降水 概念模型 预测模型 |
The Conceptual Model and Prediction Model of Summer Precipitation in Aletai Area |
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| ZHUANG Xiao-cui,AN Dong-liang and LIU Da-feng.The Conceptual Model and Prediction Model of Summer Precipitation in Aletai Area[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2008,2(6):16-18. |
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| Authors: | ZHUANG Xiao-cui AN Dong-liang and LIU Da-feng |
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| Institution: | ZHUANG Xiao-cui, AN Dong-liang, LIU Da-feng (1. Aletai Meteorological Observatory, Aletai 836500, China; 2. Shihezi Meteorological Bureau, Shihezi 832000, China) |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of analyzing and surveying the physical significance of each factor,the conceptual model and the prediction model of summer precipitation in Aletai area was established.It shows that at 500hPa height field in summer,if the polar vortex leaned to south and to be stronger,from Europe to Caspian Sea and Salty Sea and from Baikal Lake to Mongolia are ridge areas,from Western Siberia to Balkhash Lake is trough area,Western Pacific subtropical high extend to the north and the west and North Africa subtropical high extend to the east as well as Iran subtropical high extending to the north obviously,and El Nino or La Nina event,happen besides the precipitation of earlier period is more in May,then the precipitation in Aletai is easy on the high side,otherwise it is few less in summer. |
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| Keywords: | summer precipitation conceptual model prediction model |
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