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Risk analysis of possible impacts of climate change on South Australian wheat production |
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| Authors: | Qunying Luo William Bellotti Martin Williams Ian Cooper Brett Bryan |
| Institution: | (1) Department of Geographical and Environmental Studies, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia;(2) School of Agriculture & Wine, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5371, Australia;(3) Policy and Economic Research Unit, CSIRO Land and Water, Private Bag 2, Glen Osmond, Burnside, South Australia, 5064, Australia |
| Abstract: | This study presents a model-based risk assessment of wheat production under projected climate change by 2080 in eight locations of South Australia. The vulnerability of wheat production under future climate change was quantitatively evaluated via a risk analysis in which the identification of critical yield thresholds applies. Research results show that risk (conditional probability of not exceeding the critical yield thresholds) increased more or less across all locations under the most likely climate change. Wheat production in drier areas such as Minnipa, Orroroo and Wanbi will not be economically viable under the most likely climate change. Intensive studies on adaptation are now required. |
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