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Risk early warning of maize drought disaster in Northwestern Liaoning Province,China |
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| Authors: | Qi Zhang Jiquan Zhang Chunyi Wang Liang Cui Denghua Yan |
| Institution: | 1. School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, People’s Republic of China 2. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, People’s Republic of China 3. Sina-Canada Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, People’s Republic of China 4. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, People’s Republic of China |
| Abstract: | This study presents a methodology of risk early warning of maize drought disaster in Northwestern Liaoning Province from the viewpoints of climatology, geography, disaster science, environmental science, and so on. The study area was disaggregated into small grid cells, which has higher resolution than counties. Based on the daily meteorological data and maize yield data from 1997 to 2005, the risk early warning model was built up for drought disaster. The early warning crisis signs were considered from exogenous warning signs and endogenous warning signs. The probability of drought was taken as endogenous warnings sign, which was calculated by logistic regression model. Beside precipitation, wind speed and temperature were taken into consideration when assessing the drought. The optimal partition method was used to define the threshold of each warning grade. Take the year of 2009 as an example, this risk early warning model performed well in warning drought disasters of each maize-growing stage. Results obtained from the early warning model can guide the government to take emergency action to reduce the losses. |
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