| 洛阳市浅层地下水硬度的灰色数列预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 林丽蓉,靳孟贵,王现国.洛阳市浅层地下水硬度的灰色数列预测[J].水文地质工程地质,2006,33(1):41-45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林丽蓉 靳孟贵 王现国 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地质大学,武汉,430074
2. 中国地质大学,武汉,430074;河南省地质矿产勘查开发局第二水文地质工程地质队,郑州,450053 |
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| 基金项目： | 高等学校博士学科点专项科研项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 洛阳市浅层地下水硬度上升问题突出。要解决水质硬化问题，必须掌握市区浅层地下水硬度的时空发展趋势。灰色数列预测是一种较好的趋势预测方法，不需要大量数据，而且是一种动态的分析过程。本文将市区的浅层地下水硬度作为灰色量，用已有的硬度数据建立GM（1，1）灰色模型，预测其未来的变化趋势。目的在于为改善洛阳市浅层地下水质，解决水质硬化问题提供一个参考依据。预测结果显示，灰色模型具有较好的预测效果。除局部地段外，洛阳市大部分地方的浅层地下水硬度呈上升趋势；硬度在空间分布上会发生变化。
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| 关 键 词： | 浅层地下水 硬度 灰色数列预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-3665（2006）01-0041-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-03-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-04-27 |
Grey prediction of data sequence of the hardness in shallow groundwater in Luoyang |
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| LIN Li-rong,JIN Meng-gui,WANG Xian-guo.Grey prediction of data sequence of the hardness in shallow groundwater in Luoyang[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2006,33(1):41-45. |
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| Authors: | LIN Li-rong JIN Meng-gui WANG Xian-guo |
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| Institution: | 1. China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China ; 2. Second Team of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology, Bureau of Geoexploration and Mineral Development of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450053, China |
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| Abstract: | The shallow groundwater near Luoyang has been hard seriously.To solve the problem,it is necessary to find out the temporal and spatial development of the hardness in the shallow groundwater.Gray prediction of data sequence is a good method for trend prediction.It doesn't need a lot of data and is only a dynamic analysis.In this paper,the hardness of the shallow groundwater was treated as a grey variable and the GM(1,1) grey model was created to predict the future trend of the change in hardness.The aim is to provide a reference for solving the high hardness problem of the shallow groundwater.The predictive results show that the grey model is an effective one.The hardness of the shallow groundwater in most places of Luoyang will rise continuously,and the spatial distribution of the hardness will change. |
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| Keywords: | shallow groundwater hardness grey prediction of data sequence |
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