| 广州市登革热时空传播特征及影响因素 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈业滨,李卫红,黄玉兴,李晓歌,华家敏.广州市登革热时空传播特征及影响因素[J].热带地理,2016,36(5):767-775. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈业滨 李卫红 黄玉兴 李晓歌 华家敏 |
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| 作者单位： | （1．华南师范大学 地理科学学院，广州 510631；2．中国人民大学 环境学院，北京 100872） |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（41201432）；国家自然科学基金项目（41171141） |
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| 摘 要： | 以广州市主城区为研究区，着眼于街道等微观尺度，首先通过实地调查分析法、核密度分析法、标准差椭圆法，探究登革热时空传播特征；其次结合交叉相关性分析法与地理探测器，分析温度、湿度、气压、用地类型对登革热传播的影响，讨论了不同用地类型交互作用与登革热扩散的关系。研究表明：1）登革热时空传播具明显的阶段性特征，多发生于居住环境较差、人口密度较高的区域，并快速向外扩散；2)登革热发展初期，以输入型病例为主；3）环境较差、老年人口众多、人员构成复杂、交通便捷的老城区是登革热高爆发风险区域；4）温度、湿度、气压对登革热传播存在显著滞后性影响关系，温度、湿度与登革热传播呈正相关关系，气压与登革热传播呈负相关关系；5）居民人口分布与登革热传播关系最为密切，池塘、农田、草地、公共绿地交互地区会增加登革热传播风险。
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| 关 键 词： | 登革热 时空传播特征 气象因素 用地类型 交叉相关性分析 地理探测器 广州 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-06-18 |
Spatio-temporal Spreading Features and the Influence Factors of Dengue Fever in Downtown Guangzhou |
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| CHEN Yebin,LI Weihong,HUANG Yuxing,LI Xiaoge,HUA Jiamin.Spatio-temporal Spreading Features and the Influence Factors of Dengue Fever in Downtown Guangzhou[J].Tropical Geography,2016,36(5):767-775. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Yebin LI Weihong HUANG Yuxing LI Xiaoge HUA Jiamin |
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| Abstract: | The study took downtown Guangzhou as the study area to observe the spatio-temporal spreading
features of Dengue Fever (DF) at micro-scale. We used survey analysis, kernel density analysis and standard deviation ellipse method to explore the spatio-temporal diffusion features. Then, we tried to combine the cross correlation analysis method with geographical detector to analyze the effect of temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, different land-use types on dengue fever spread. The result showed that: Firstly, fever transmission had stage character significantly. The infection cases occurred predominantly in the spaces with poor environment and high population density, and spread rapidly. Secondly, the importation cases played a major role in the early stages of DF development. Thirdly, the old town, where there were relatively poor environment, large quantity of elderly population, complicated personnel, and convenient traffic, was a high-risk area of DF outbreak. Fourthly, the influence of temperature, humidity and atmospheric pressure on dengue fever spread was lagging. Temperature and humidity had positive correlationship with the spread of dengue fever, while atmospheric pressure had negative correlationship with the spread. Finally, the distribution of local residents had the closest association with dengue fever spread, and the interactive places among pond, farmland, grassland and public green space could increase the dengue fever infection risk. |
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| Keywords: | Dengue Fevers spatio-temporal diffusion characteristics meteorological factors land-use type cross-correlation analysis geographical detector Guangzhou |
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