| 2009—2018年西藏人口与经济的非均衡格局及其影响因素 |
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| 引用本文： | 张俊,姜海宁,张文忠,李佳洺,马仁锋.2009—2018年西藏人口与经济的非均衡格局及其影响因素[J].地理研究,2023,42(1):172-190. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张俊 姜海宁 张文忠 李佳洺 马仁锋 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.浙江师范大学地理与环境科学学院，金华 3210042.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室，北京 1001013.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院，北京 1000494.宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系，宁波 315211 |
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| 基金项目： | 第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0406) |
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| 摘 要： | 选择地理集中度、基尼系数、不一致指数等指标，研究2009—2018年西藏人口与经济非均衡时空格局，并采用面板数据回归和时空地理加权回归模型对其影响因素进行分析。结果发现：西藏人口与经济分布表现出稳定的非均衡格局，呈现“东南高、西北低”的特征，地理集中度高值区与河谷平原、交通干线、行政中心的分布耦合性较强。西藏人口与经济空间匹配的整体非均衡性不断减弱，县区人口与经济不一致指数的空间分布和发展态势差异明显。人力资本、经济实力和产业结构水平是影响人口与经济不一致性的主导因素，三者影响系数绝对值均大于10%，其次是政府调控能力、道路基础设施、物质资本和医疗基础设施，而社会消费水平的作用不显著。各因素对不一致指数影响的空间异质性表明，人力资本和产业结构水平对大部分县区的影响更多体现在吸引人口方面，经济实力、物质资本、医疗基础设施、政府调控能力对县区的影响主要体现在推动经济发展上，其中经济实力的影响范围囊括所有县区；与其他影响因素相比，道路基础设施、社会消费影响的空间差异最为明显。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口 经济 非均衡格局 影响因素 西藏 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-04-21 |
Inequality pattern of population-economy and its influencing factors in Tibet from 2009 to 2018 |
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| ZHANG Jun,JIANG Haining,ZHANG Wenzhong,LI Jiaming,MA Renfeng.Inequality pattern of population-economy and its influencing factors in Tibet from 2009 to 2018[J].Geographical Research,2023,42(1):172-190. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jun JIANG Haining ZHANG Wenzhong LI Jiaming MA Renfeng |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, Zhejiang, China2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China3. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China4. Department of Geography and Spatial Information Technology, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, Zhejiang, China |
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| Abstract: | Population and economy are essential problems of human social development and many studies have proved that there is a close correlation between them. Population flow is an important reason affecting the process of regional economic equilibrium, while regional economic disequilibrium is a vital driving force of population flow. Their spatio-temporal pattern and current relationship are constraint and support for regional sustainable development. Unbalanced development has become increasingly prominent in China, but the underdeveloped regions have not received enough attention. As minority autonomous region and southwest frontier region of China, Tibet has long been the only provincial concentrated contiguous poverty-stricken area. It is of great significance to examine the relationship between population and economy of this kind of area. This article made a spatial-temporal study on the inequality pattern of population-economy in Tibet during 2009-2018 by combining geographic concentration, Gini coefficient and inconsistent index. Panel data regression and spatio-temporal weighted regression model were used to analyze the factors affecting the inconsistency of population and economy distribution. The results show that the population and economy agglomeration demonstrate a stable and disequilibrium pattern which is characterized by high in the southeast and low in the northwest. The area with high geography concentration has strong coupling with the distribution of river valley plains, traffic trunks and administrative centers. The overall imbalance of population-economy is weakening. However, the spatial distribution and development trend of inconsistent index are disparate in different counties. Human capital, economic strength and industrial structure are the leading factors affecting the inconsistency of population-economy whose absolute value of the influence coefficient are more than 10%, followed by government regulation capacity, road infrastructure, physical capital and medical infrastructure. The effect of social consumption level is not significant. Spatial differences in effects on inconsistent index indicate that the effect of human capital and industrial structure on most counties are more reflected in attracting population. The influence of economic strength, physical capital, medical infrastructure and government regulation capacity are mainly reflected in promoting economic development, and the reach of economy strength covers all counties. Compared with other influencing factors, the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of road infrastructure and social consumption on inconsistent index are the most obvious. |
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| Keywords: | population economy inequality pattern influencing factors Tibet |
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