| 基于GIS与确定性系数分析方法的汶川地震滑坡易发性评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,赵洲,肖建章.基于GIS与确定性系数分析方法的汶川地震滑坡易发性评价[J].工程地质学报(英文版),2010,18(1):15. |
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| 作者姓名： | 许冲 戴福初 姚鑫 赵洲 肖建章 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所 北京 100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地质科学院地质力学研究所基本科研业务费项目(编号:DZLXJK200906) |
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| 摘 要： | 汶川Ms 80级大地震诱发了数以万计的滑坡灾害。在大约48678 km2的滑坡影响区域内,作者采用震后遥感影像解译并结合野外调查的方法,共解译出48007处滑坡。应用GIS技术,建立了汶川地震诱发滑坡灾害及相关地形、地质空间数据库。采用地震滑坡确定性系数分析方法,分析了地震滑坡关于地震烈度、岩性、坡度、断层、高程、坡向、河流与公路等8个因素的易发程度。基于GIS栅格分析方法,分别对16种不同影响因子组合类型进行地震滑坡易发性评价。最后,应用AUC（Area Under Curve,评价曲线下面积）方法得到最佳因子组合及其对应的评价结果,使用自然分类法则方法将研究区按滑坡易发程度分为极高易发区、高易发区、中易发区、低易发区与极低易发区5类,极高易发区与高易发区面积之和约1169046km2,占研究区总面积的2402%,其中发育滑坡面积为52484 km2,占滑坡总面积的7373%。结果表明了极高与高易发区与实际滑坡之间有着良好的一致性,方法的评价结果成功率（AUC值）达到82107%。
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| 关 键 词： | 汶川地震 滑 坡 确定性系数法 易发性评价 GIS |
GIS PLATFORM AND CERTAINTY FACTOR ANALYSIS METHOD BASED WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY EVALUATION |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 1000292.Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 1000493.Key Laboratory of Neotectonic and Geohazard,Ministry of Land and Resources,Beijing 1000814.Institute of Geomechanics,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 1000815.College of Geology and Environment,Xian University of Science and Technology,Xian 710054 |
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| Abstract: | At 14:28(Beijing time)of May 12,2008,a catastrophic earthquake with surface wave magnitude of 8.0 struck Sichuan province of China.Tens of thousands of landslides were triggered by this earthquake over a broad area.A total of 48007 landslides were interpreted from aerial photographs and multi-source remote sensing imageries,verified by field check.A spatial database,including landslides and associated controlling parameters which may have influence on the occurrence of landslides,was developed and analyzed ... |
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| Keywords: | Wenchuan earthquake Landslide Certainty factor method Susceptibility assessment Geographic Information Systems |
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