| 三峡水库运行下长江中游典型河段水情变化及趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李景保,谷佳慧,代稳,吕殿青,刘雯.三峡水库运行下长江中游典型河段水情变化及趋势预测[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(5):1373-1384. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李景保 谷佳慧 代稳 吕殿青 刘雯 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 湖南师范大学 资源与环境科学学院, 湖南 长沙 410081;
2. 中国地质大学, 北京 100083;
3. 中国地质科学院 岩溶地质研究所, 广西 桂林 541004 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;湖南省重点学科建设项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 以1983-2014年长江中游5个水文站实测水文资料为依据，利用Morlet小波和ARIMA模型等方法，系统分析了三峡水库运行下长江中游典型河段水情变化特征及其未来变化趋势.结果表明：三峡水库运行后，长江中游典型河段流量年际变化不显著，年内月分配较明显的趋于均匀化，这是气候波动与以三峡水库为标志的人类活动综合作用的结果；长江中游典型河段径流变化以18~26 a、8~13 a的周期变化较为明显，周期中心分别为22 a和12 a，并存在更小尺度的周期，三峡水库的运行对典型河段径流大尺度的变化周期影响微弱，对小尺度的变化周期产生了一定的影响；总体上，2014年以后典型河段流量将偏丰，并持续若干年.其中枝城站流量将在2014年以后一段时期呈增大趋势，由偏枯期转为偏丰期，大致持续到2017年；沙市、监利、城陵矶、螺山站流量在2011年由偏枯期转入偏丰期之后，一直呈增大趋势，将于2016年左右达到最大值，之后呈减小趋势，但仍将处于偏丰期，大约持续到2018年.
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| 关 键 词： | 水情变化 Morlet小波变换 ARIMA 长江中游典型河段 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-05-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016-08-27 |
Hydrologic regime variation and trend prediction in the typical sections of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under the TGR operation |
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| LI Jingbao,GU Jiahui,DAI Wen,L&#,Dianqing,LIU Wen.Hydrologic regime variation and trend prediction in the typical sections of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under the TGR operation[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2016,38(5):1373-1384. |
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| Authors: | LI Jingbao GU Jiahui DAI Wen L&# Dianqing LIU Wen |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China;
2. School of the Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China;
3. Institute of Karst Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Guilin 541004, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the hydrological data from five hydrological stations located in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 1983 through 2014, the changing characteristics and long-term trend after the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoirs (TGR) were systematically analyzed with the method of Morlet wavelet and ARIMA model. The result shows that:(1) Since the TGR operation, a tiny annual change of river discharge in the typical sections in the middle reaches of Yangtze river have been detected, and an obviously homogeneous trend of discharge within an year have been seen owing to climate variation and human activities. (2) River runoffs of the five typical sections in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River change with obvious periods of 18-26 a and 8-13 a, with cycle centers of 22 a and 12 a, respectively, and also with shorter cycles. The operation of the TGR has impacted more on the short changing period than long period. (3) Generally, since 2014, runoff of the five typical sections has been continuously abundant. Runoff in Zhicheng Station has increased after 2014 till 2017; after a shift from drought to wet in 2011, runoff in Shashi, Jianli, Chenglingji and Luoshan Stations have increased. It is expected that a maximum runoff will reach in 2016, after that then, a decreasing tendency will show up; wet runoff in period, however, will remain until 2018. |
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| Keywords: | hydrological changing Morlet wavelet transform ARIMA typical sections in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River |
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