The Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System (GEVES): an approach for earthquake risk assessment for insurance applications |
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| Authors: | Robin Spence Emily So Sarah Jenny Hervé Castella Michael Ewald Edmund Booth |
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| Institution: | (1) Cambridge Architectural Research Ltd, Unit 6, 25 Gwydir Street, Cambridge, CB1 2LG, UK;(2) PartnerRe, Zurich, Switzerland;(3) Edmund Booth Consulting Engineers, London, UK |
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| Abstract: | For the insurance and reinsurance industries, earthquake loss estimation is crucial not only to adequately price its product
but also to manage the accumulation risk in the face of the ever-increasing exposure in highly seismic regions. Changes in
the built environment and a continuously evolving earthquake science make it a necessity for the industry to constantly refine
earthquake loss estimation models. In particular, it has been recognized for a long time that the vulnerability of buildings
to ground shaking is a key parameter in any earthquake risk model. Current methods tend either to rely on the limited historical
damage and loss data or on the numerical simulation of the response of individual buildings to the ground-shaking produced
by earthquakes. Although both methods have their advantages and pitfalls, we are proposing here a simple solution, using transparent
input data, that can be realistically used for the needs of the insurance and reinsurance industry, whether detailed information
about the insured structures is available or not. The resulting product is known as GEVES (Global Earthquake Vulnerability
Estimation System). It is primarily intended for evaluating the mean damage ratio (MDR) suffered by a portfolio of buildings
classified by use, under the action of a given earthquake scenario (i.e. an earthquake of given size at a given distance from
the portfolio of buildings). A key assumption was that macroseismic intensity rather than spectral displacement would be the
basis of loss estimation. The paper describes the model with emphasis on its structure and the justification for the assumptions
made. In addition to a new set of earthquake vulnerability functions, the paper also provides recommendations on some aspects
of the earthquake hazard, in particular about how to define macroseismic intensity at the site of interest, for a given earthquake
scenario. This paper also discusses validation of the GEVES model against calculated vulnerability approaches, and the treatment
of uncertainty within the model. |
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| Keywords: | Earthquake Vulnerability Insurance Loss estimation Ground motion Macroseismic intensity Uncertainty |
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