| 灰色卡尔曼滤波预报集成方法的实验研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 尤临,梁红丽.灰色卡尔曼滤波预报集成方法的实验研究[J].云南地理环境研究,2004(Z1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 尤临 梁红丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南省曲靖市气象局 云南省曲靖市气象局 云南曲靖 云南曲靖 |
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| 摘 要： | 将目前云南业务上预测重要关键期的昆明5月雨量的5种预报模型输出的降水预报值作为预报因子,运用灰色理论分别将以上5个预报因子原始数列和降水实况作一次累加生成处理,分别得到随机性被弱化的单增数列,用卡尔曼滤波法进行递推计算,得到降水预报值。将得到的降水预报值作还原处理,即累减生成后,最终输出降水量预报值。此方法用于作1998、1999、2000年昆明5月雨量预报,除1999年预报滞后外,其余两年的预报效果均优于5种方法的独立预报以及平均值。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色卡尔曼 集成方法 |
THE EXPERIMENT OF GREY-KALMAN FILTERING FORCAST AND INTERGRATED METHOD |
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| YOU Lin,LIANG Hong-li.THE EXPERIMENT OF GREY-KALMAN FILTERING FORCAST AND INTERGRATED METHOD[J].Yunnan Geographic Environment Research,2004(Z1). |
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| Authors: | YOU Lin LIANG Hong-li |
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| Abstract: | Taking precipitation as predictor which was output by five kinds of pre dicted model used in forecasting Kunming's precipitation in May at present.Becau se precipitation is discontinuous variable,accumulating,originating and manipu lating the initial data of five predictors with grey theory,and then severally outputing monotonously increasing number sequence and it's randomicity has been weakened,then using Kalman filtering method to recursional caculation for forca sting precipitation which not only makes the coefficient of integrated eqution d ynamic change,but also makes the weighing coefficient bigger in integrated equt ion whose effect is better in recent prediction.Finally,reducing treat the prec ipitation,and output the predicted precipitation.With this method ,caculating the Kunming's precipitation in May 1998,1999 and 2000,the forcasting result in 1999 is lag and the others'effect is better than that of the special and averag e forcasting results with five kinds of predicted method. |
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| Keywords: | grey-kalman integrated method |
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