| Archimedean族Copulas函数在多变量干旱特征分析中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 于艺,宋松柏,马明卫.Archimedean族Copulas函数在多变量干旱特征分析中的应用[J].水文,2011,31(2):6-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 于艺 宋松柏 马明卫 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌,712100 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，西北农林科技大学优秀博士论文基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 以甘肃省陇西站月降水资料为例,应用9种3维Archimedean Copulas函数构造了干旱历时、干旱烈度和烈度峰值的联合概率分布,并进行了多变量的拟合优度评价,利用优选出的3维非对称型M12 Copula函数,计算联合分布的重现期以及不同组合下的条件概率与条件重现期。结果表明,M12Copula函数可以描述干旱历时、干旱烈度和烈度峰值间的联合分布。由于Copula函数能够用来构建不同边缘分布的联合分布,可以获得变量间不同组合下的重现期,因而能够更全面客观地反映干旱的特征,是描述干旱多变量分布的一种有效途径。
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| 关 键 词： | Archimedean Copulas函数 干旱 联合分布 条件概率 重现期 |
Archimedean Copulas for Drought Characteristics Analysis |
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| YU Yi,SONG Songbai,MA Mingwei.Archimedean Copulas for Drought Characteristics Analysis[J].Hydrology,2011,31(2):6-10. |
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| Authors: | YU Yi SONG Songbai MA Mingwei |
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| Institution: | YU Yi,SONG Songbai,MA Mingwei(College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on monthly precipitation of Longxi gauging station(Shanxi Province,China),M12 copula was used to construct the joint probability distribution of drought duration,drought severity and severity peak,and goodness-of-fit tests was also completed.On the basis of this,return periods of multivariate joint distribution were calculated,and the trivariate conditional probability and return periods were explored.The results show that M12 copula is suitable to build the multivariate joint distribution of drought ... |
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| Keywords: | Archimedean Copulas drought joint probability distribution conditional probability return period |
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