| 气候变化风险研究的初步探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴绍洪,潘韬,贺山峰.气候变化风险研究的初步探讨[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,7(5):363-368. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴绍洪 潘韬 贺山峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中科院地理科学与资源研究所;2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;3. 河南理工大学; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“十一五”科技支撑计划课题(2006BAD20B05,2007BAC03A02) |
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| 摘 要： | 讨论了气候变化风险的基本内涵，指出敏感性、暴露程度及可能性是气候变化风险的三个基本组成要素。气候变化风险具有不确定性、未来事件、损害性以及相对性等特征。风险评估与风险管理是气候变化风险研究的两个主要环节，以风险评估为手段，以风险管理为最终目标，是应对气候变化行动的基本思路。提出了气候变化风险研究的初步框架和主要方法。并给出未来气候变化下中国洪涝灾害风险研究的实际案例。最后指出，气候变化风险研究要从风险集合预测、定量风险损失评估、风险区划与制图以及风险管理等多个方面展开。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 风险评估 理论与方法 不确定性 climate change risk assessment theories and methods uncertainty |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-04-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 2011-08-03 |
Primary Study on the Theories and Methods of Research on Climate Change Risk |
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| Wu Shaohong,Pan Tao,He Shanfeng.Primary Study on the Theories and Methods of Research on Climate Change Risk[J].Advances in Climate Change,2011,7(5):363-368. |
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| Authors: | Wu Shaohong Pan Tao He Shanfeng |
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| Institution: | Wu Shaohong1,Pan Tao1,He Shanfeng2(1 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China,2 Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454000,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper discusses the theories and methods of climate change risk study for carrying out basis for the research expansion in China.Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity,exposure and possibility.Uncertainty,future events,damaging and relativity are the major features of climate change risk.Climate change risk research includes two key steps including risk assessment and risk management,the former is the process,and the latter is the ultimate goal which is the basis f... |
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| Keywords: | climate change risk assessment risk management uncertainty |
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