| 2002年12月25日乌恰5.8级地震的长、中、短期跟踪预测和反思 |
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| 引用本文： | 苏乃秦.2002年12月25日乌恰5.8级地震的长、中、短期跟踪预测和反思[J].内陆地震,2004,18(3):193-201. |
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| 作者姓名： | 苏乃秦 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830011 |
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| 摘 要： | 在乌恰地区地震活动呈现长期平静异常的背景下,通过多种方法对2002年12月25日乌恰5．8级地震进行了1-3年的中长期预测。应用“模糊地震活动度”和“空区参数法”两种方法进行了1年和半年的中期预测,结合对该地区小震活动动态的分析与震例分析,尤其是预警地震的分析判断,提出了3个月的短期预测意见,较好地预测了这次地震。最后对预测情况进行了正反两个方面的总结和反思,提出了七点看法。
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| 关 键 词： | 乌恰5．8级地震 长、中、短期预报 地震图像 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-8956(2004)03-0193-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年8月1日 |
THE TRACING PREDICTION AND ITS RETHINK ABOUT LONG-TERM,MEDIUM-TERM AND SHORT-TERM OF THE WUQIA EARTHQUAKE WITH Ms5.8 ON DEC.25,2002 |
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| SU Nai-qin.THE TRACING PREDICTION AND ITS RETHINK ABOUT LONG-TERM,MEDIUM-TERM AND SHORT-TERM OF THE WUQIA EARTHQUAKE WITH Ms5.8 ON DEC.25,2002[J].Inland Earthquake,2004,18(3):193-201. |
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| Authors: | SU Nai-qin |
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| Abstract: | In Wuqia area, based on the background of long-term tranquility anomaly about seismic activity, we made the medium-term prediction of 1 to 3 years by many methods for the Wuqia earthquake with M \-S5.8 on Dec.25, 2003. And made prediction of one year and half a year by "the seismicity degree of obscure earthquake" and "the gap parametric" methods. Combining the analyse of the active dynamic about small earthquakes and cases in the area, especially the analyse and the judgment of early warning, we put up short-term prediction of 3 months. It was very good to prediction the earthquake. At last, we made some summaries and rethinks of correct and incorrect for the prediction, and put up 7 pieces of idea. |
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| Keywords: | The Wuqia earthquake with M \-S Seismicity The prediction of long medium and short terms The earthquake image |
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