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| 基于公平最大化目标的2020年北京市养老设施布局优化 | |
| 引用本文： | 陶卓霖,程杨,戴特奇,李雪.基于公平最大化目标的2020年北京市养老设施布局优化[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(12):1609-1616. |
| 作者姓名： | 陶卓霖 程杨 戴特奇 李雪 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京 100875 2. 北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 100871 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41301164) |
| 摘 要： | 北京市正快速步入老龄化社会,机构养老作为一种重要的养老模式,对其布局公平性和合理性的研究具有重要的科学和现实意义。本文首先预测了自然增长状态下2020年北京市老龄人口的空间分布,然后建立设施布局优化模型,该模型以各需求点到养老设施的可达性差异最小化为目标;并采用粒子群优化算法求解,对北京市养老设施进行以公平最大化为目标的布局优化。研究结果表明,在公平最大化的目标下,首都功能核心区和城市功能拓展区(即中心城区)所提供的机构养老资源不能完全满足本地需求。城市发展新区在满足当地的机构养老需求之外,还将为中心城区提供大量机构养老服务,生态涵养发展区在满足本地需求的基础上还可为其他地区提供少量机构养老服务。该布局导向与《北京市养老设施专项规划》提出的布局建议相一致,且符合中心城区用地紧张、郊区自然环境较舒适的现实情况。研究结果能为养老政策的制定提供科学建议,所采用的方法也能为其他类型公共服务设施的布局优化提供借鉴。 |
| 关 键 词： | 空间优化 公平最大化 人口预测 粒子群优化算法 养老设施 北京 |
Spatial optimization of residential care facility locations in 2020 in Beijing: maximum equity in accessibility |
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| Zhuolin TAO,Yang CHENG,Teqi DAI,Xue LI.Spatial optimization of residential care facility locations in 2020 in Beijing: maximum equity in accessibility[J].Progress in Geography,2015,34(12):1609-1616. | |
| Authors: | Zhuolin TAO Yang CHENG Teqi DAI Xue LI |
| Institution: | 1. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China 2. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China |
| Abstract: | Beijing is facing rapid population aging. Residential care plays an increasingly important role in the care for the elderly people. It is of great importance to optimize the layout of residential care facilities to ensure equal and reasonable access, which has scientific and practical implications. This study first forecasted the spatial distribution of the elderly population under natural growth in 2020 in Beijing. Second, a spatial optimization model was established to maximize equity in access to residential care facilities. The Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm was used to solve the optimization model. As the results show, the elderly population aged 60 or older will reach 4.37 million in 2020 in Beijing, among which 7.9%, 50.2%, 30.1%, and 11.8% of the total elderly population will be located in the Capital Core Functional Area, Urban Functional Extension Area, Urban New Developing Area, and Ecological Protection Area, respectively. By contrast, 2.7%, 32.7%, 48.5%, and 16.1% of the total residential care facility (RCF) beds will be located in the Capital Core Functional Area, Urban Functional Extension Area, Urban New Developing Area, and Ecological Protection Area, respectively when optimized . The optimized RCF layouts improve spatially equal access to residential care resources with very low accessibility standard variation (0.0026), while the accessibility standard variation of actual layouts is 8 times (0.0207) that of the optimized results. In the layouts with maximum equity in access, only a portion of the demands for residential care in the Capital Core Functional Area and Urban Functional Extension Area will be met locally. The residential care resources in the Urban New Developing Area will meet both the local demands and the demands from the two functional areas in the central city. The Ecological Protection Area, however, mainly provides residential care services for the local elderly population. The optimized results of this study correspond to the “Special Plan for the Development of Residential Care Facilities in Beijing,” which also conforms to the reality that the land resources are in shortage in the central city and the physical environment in the suburb is more pleasant for the elderly people. The results of this study will support knowledge-based policy-making and planning of residential care facilities. The methods introduced in this study can also be applied to the spatial optimization of other types of public service facilities. |
| Keywords: | spatial optimization maximum equity population forecast particle swarm optimization (PSO) residential care facilities Beijing |
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