Advances in landslide nowcasting: evaluation of a global and regional modeling approach |
| |
| Authors: | Dalia Bach Kirschbaum Robert Adler Yang Hong Sujay Kumar Christa Peters-Lidard Arthur Lerner-Lam |
| |
| Institution: | (1) Hydrological Sciences Branch, Code 614.3, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA;(2) Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC), University of Maryland College Park, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, USA;(3) School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Sciences, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Suite 3642, Norman, OK 73072, USA;(4) ARRC Atmospheric Radar Research Center, The National Weather Center, University of Oklahoma, Suite 4610, Norman, OK 73072, USA;(5) Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), Beltsville, MD, USA;(6) Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964, USA |
| |
| Abstract: | The increasing availability of remotely sensed data offers a new opportunity to address landslide hazard assessment at larger
spatial scales. A prototype global satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm has been developed to identify areas that may
experience landslide activity. This system combines a calculation of static landslide susceptibility with satellite-derived
rainfall estimates and uses a threshold approach to generate a set of ‘nowcasts’ that classify potentially hazardous areas.
A recent evaluation of this algorithm framework found that while this tool represents an important first step in larger-scale
near real-time landslide hazard assessment efforts, it requires several modifications before it can be fully realized as an
operational tool. This study draws upon a prior work’s recommendations to develop a new approach for considering landslide
susceptibility and hazard at the regional scale. This case study calculates a regional susceptibility map using remotely sensed
and in situ information and a database of landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 over four countries in Central America.
The susceptibility map is evaluated with a regional rainfall intensity–duration triggering threshold and results are compared
with the global algorithm framework for the same event. Evaluation of this regional system suggests that this empirically
based approach provides one plausible way to approach some of the data and resolution issues identified in the global assessment.
The presented methodology is straightforward to implement, improves upon the global approach, and allows for results to be
transferable between regions. The results also highlight several remaining challenges, including the empirical nature of the
algorithm framework and adequate information for algorithm validation. Conclusions suggest that integrating additional triggering
factors such as soil moisture may help to improve algorithm performance accuracy. The regional algorithm scenario represents
an important step forward in advancing regional and global-scale landslide hazard assessment. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
|
