| Application of a time-magnitude prediction model for earthquakes |
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| 作者姓名： | 安卫平 金学申 杨家亮 董鹏 赵军 张合 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]Seismological Bureau of Shanxi Province, Taiyuan 030002, China [2]Seismological Bureau of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China [3]Communication Bureau of Zhangjiakou City, Zhangjiakou 75000, China |
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| 摘 要： | In this paper we discuss the physical meaning of the magnitude-time model parameters for earthquake prediction. The gestation process for strong earthquake in all eleven seismic zones in China can be described by the magnitude-time prediction model using the computations of the parameters of the model. The average model parameter values for China are： b = 0.383, c=0.154, d = 0.035, B = 0.844, C = -0.209, and D = 0.188. The robustness of the model parameters is estimated from the variation in the minimum magnitude of the transformed data, the spatial extent, and the temporal period. Analysis of the spatial and temporal suitability of the model indicates that the computation unit size should be at least 4°× 4°for seismic zones in North China, at least 3° × 3° in Southwest and Northwest China, and the time period should be as long as possible.
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| 关 键 词： | 地震 预报 坚固性 时间模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 10 January 2007 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-01-102007-04-25 |
Application of a time-magnitude prediction model for earthquakes |
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| Weiping An,Xueshen Jin,Jialiang Yang,Peng Dong,Jun Zhao,He Zhang.Application of a time-magnitude prediction model for earthquakes[J].Applied Geophysics,2007,4(2):138-145. |
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| Authors: | Weiping An Xueshen Jin Jialiang Yang Peng Dong Jun Zhao He Zhang |
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| Institution: | (1) Seismological Bureau of Shanxi Province, Taiyuan, 030002, China;(2) Seismological Bureau of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, 050021, China;(3) Communication Bureau of Zhangjiakou City, Zhangjiakou, 75000, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper we discuss the physical meaning of the magnitude-time model parameters for earthquake prediction. The gestation
process for strong earthquake in all eleven seismic zones in China can be described by the magnitude-time prediction model
using the computations of the parameters of the model. The average model parameter values for China are: b = 0.383, c=0.154,
d = 0.035, B = 0.844, C = −0.209, and D = 0.188. The robustness of the model parameters is estimated from the variation in
the minimum magnitude of the transformed data, the spatial extent, and the temporal period. Analysis of the spatial and temporal
suitability of the model indicates that the computation unit size should be at least 4° × 4° for seismic zones in North China,
at least 3° × 3° in Southwest and Northwest China, and the time period should be as long as possible.
An Weiping, senior engineer, graduated from geological department, Beijing University in 1979. He has been working in Seismological Bureau
of Shanxi Province in seismology, geology and earthquake engineering since 1979. he has published More 20 papers in some scientific
magazines.
Jin Xueshen, Professor, graduated from Beijing University in 1967 and from postgraduate college of Academia Sinica in 1981. His research
interests are seismology, long term earthquake prediction, and seismic zoning.
Yang Jialiang, senior engineer, graduated from Geology department, Beijing University in 1982. He studys on seismic zoning. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake prediction robustness time- magnitude model |
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