| 基于自组织模型的酒嘉玉地区城市化动态演变 |
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| 引用本文： | 李铭,方创琳.基于自组织模型的酒嘉玉地区城市化动态演变[J].地理研究,2006,25(3):551-559. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李铭 方创琳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100039
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目水资源约束下西北干旱区城市化过程及其生态效应研究（40335049） |
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| 摘 要： | 根据耗散结构理论中的自组织建模原理,将人口区域之间的迁移耦合作用作为区域城市化模拟预测的影响因素纳入到预测模型中,从而对区域城市化的时空动态演变分异特征进行模拟,更有实际意义.在酒嘉玉三市历史人口及城市化数据的基础上,利用基于自组织模型的城市化动态演变模型,模拟过去50年及预测未来50年三市城市化的动态演变趋势,并对经济增长、资源开发、生态建设、交通区位、国家政策、人口迁移等因素在城市化中的作用进行分析,得出三市城市化水平动态演变差异的动因.研究认为,采用自组织模型模拟过去50年酒嘉玉三市城市化水平与实际城市化水平之间的偏离度不超过5%,可以依此进行未来50年三市城市化水平的预测.预测表明,三市至2050年总人口将达到107.4万人,城市化水平将达到72.56%,其中酒泉达到62.5%,嘉峪关达到88.62%,玉门达到66.6%.
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| 关 键 词： | 自组织 城市化 动态演变 酒嘉玉地区 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0585（2006）03-0551-09 |
| 收稿时间： | 7/8/2005 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2/2/2006 12:00:00 AM |
Research on Jiuquan-Jiayuguan-Yumen region's dynamic evolvement of urbanization |
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| LI Ming,FANG Chuang-lin.Research on Jiuquan-Jiayuguan-Yumen region''s dynamic evolvement of urbanization[J].Geographical Research,2006,25(3):551-559. |
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| Authors: | LI Ming FANG Chuang-lin |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research.CAS,Beijing 100101, 2. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100039, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the self-organizing modeling principle in the dissipative structure theory and regarding the inter-region migration coupling as the influencing factors brought in regional urbanization level simulation and prediction model,it is more practical to simulate the spatial-temporal and dynamic evolvement characteristics of regional urbanization level.According to the historical data about the population and urbanization level of Jiuquan,Jiayuguan and Yumen cities,the past 50 years' dynamic evolvement trend is simulated and the future 50 years' dynamic evolvement trend is predicted with the urbanization dynamic evolvement model which is based on the self-organizing model.The factors which affect the regional urbanization such as economic growth,resources exploitation,ecosystem construction,traffic location,national policies,and population migration,are analyzed and then the reasons for the dynamic evolvement differences in the urbanization level of the three cities are identified. By applying self-organizing model of Jiuquan-Jiayuguan-Yumen region,this paper describes the track of urbanization which is distinguished by the differences in the extent of urbanization and population flow.It also defines the dynamic self-organizing curve which practically anticipates the urbanization extent in the future and analyses the factor of evolvement of urbanization,which benefits the form of Jiuquan-Jiayuguan-Yumen urban cluster and the whole west Longhai-Lanxin economic belt. The study suggests,the self-organizing model is fit to the simulation of Jiuquan-Jiayuguan-Yumen regional urbanization level in the past 50 years and the departure between the stimulant and the actual data is under 5%,so it can be used to predict the future urbanization level of the three cities.The predicted results show that the regional population will reach 1.074 million and the regional urbanization level will be 72.56%. |
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| Keywords: | self-organizing urbanization dynamic evolvement Jiuquan-Jiayuguan-Yumen region |
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