| 保定市2009年冬季气温分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩艳,杨龙,.保定市2009年冬季气温分析[J].气象与环境科学,2009,32(4):20-24. |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩艳 杨龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南大学环境与规划学院,河南,开封,475004 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用保定市1955-2000年的月平均气温资料,利用一元线性回归、线性倾向估计等统计学方法,分析了保定市冬季(12月-次年2月)平均气温的变化特征,并从温室效应和海洋温度变化等方面分析了冬季气温异常的原因.分析发现,保定市冬季气温变化具有明显的波动性、周期性和加速上升趋势.最后对回归模型进行显著性检验,检验结果是显著的,可见一元回归模型在气温统计分析预报应用上有相当的准确度.
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| 关 键 词： | 冬季气温异常 线性回归模型 温室效应 海温异常 |
Analysis of Winter Temperature in 2009 in Baoding |
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| Han Yan; Yang Long.Analysis of Winter Temperature in 2009 in Baoding[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2009,32(4):20-24. |
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| Authors: | Han Yan; Yang Long |
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| Institution: | College of Environment and Planning of Henan University; Kaifeng 475004; China |
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| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the change feature of winter(December to February) mean temperature by the means of univariate linear regression,linear trend estimation and other statistical methods.And from the greenhouse effect and changes in ocean temperature,the writer analyzes the causes of winter temperature anomaly.The finding is that significant changes in Baoding winter temperature took place in the form of volatility and cycle and had a trend of going upward.And about the regression model,the test result is d... |
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| Keywords: | winter temperature anomaly linear regression model greenhouse effect SSTA |
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