| 水库诱震统计特征与趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 晏同珍.水库诱震统计特征与趋势预测[J].地球科学,1993,18(5):653-659. |
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| 作者姓名： | 晏同珍 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学水文地质与工程地质系 |
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| 摘 要： |
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| 关 键 词： | 水库 诱发地震 统计特征 趋势预测 |
GLOBAL STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TENDING PROGNOSES OF EARTHQUAKE INDUCED BY RESERVOIR |
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| Yan Tongzhen.GLOBAL STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TENDING PROGNOSES OF EARTHQUAKE INDUCED BY RESERVOIR[J].Earth Science-Journal of China University of Geosciences,1993,18(5):653-659. |
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| Authors: | Yan Tongzhen |
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| Abstract: | First,the paper describes some relationship between induced earthquakes and natural ones,and the types as well as the geological and structural geological characteristics of the former earthquakes. As the important point, then, the statistical characteristics and the tending prognoses of the earthquake induced by reservoir are discussed. It is considered that the mechanism of induced earthquake may be a function of space-time and the influential factors of human being' s activities ,and the universal mechanism and determined prognostic mode may not exist. Obviously,the statistical prognosis is thought to be one of the practical approaches in the recent. Based on the monitoring statistical data,the Poisson distribution and its model,the grey system model and the relative equations are established correspondently. The result of tending prognosis denotes that the possibility cannot be theoretically ruled out that greater than 7 magnitude earthquake would occur with increasing height of the dam and depth of reservoir. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake induced by reservoir statistical characteristics tending prog- nosis |
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