| 广西西江流域降水极值趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱颖洁,郭纯青,黄夏坤.广西西江流域降水极值趋势分析[J].水文,2012,32(2):72-77. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱颖洁 郭纯青 黄夏坤 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 广西水文水资源局,广西南宁,530023
2. 桂林理工大学环境科学与工程学院,广西桂林,541004 |
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| 基金项目： | 漓江流域上游河库林仿真调度与防汛抗旱预报模型研究(桂科攻0816006-10) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据1958~2007年广西西江流域年最大1d、3d降雨量,首先,绘出平均年最大1d、3d降雨量变化曲线图,研究其趋势变化;然后,采用线性趋势回归检验法对广西西江流域内103个测站1958~2007年年最大1d、3d降雨量进行趋势分析;最后,运用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法和Spearman秩次相关检验法对代表站点的年最大1d、3d降雨量的变化趋势进行显著性检验。结果表明:广西西江流域平均年最大1d、3d降雨量呈上升趋势但上升趋势均不显著;广西东部和东北部年最大1d、3d降雨量增加趋势明显,其中东北部最为明显;在全球气候变化背景下,广西西江流域6个代表站年最大1d、3d降雨量不同区域趋势变化存在差异,东北部、北部存在递增的区域,其余为递减的区域,但变化趋势均不明显。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水极值 趋势分析 广西 西江 |
Trend Analysis of Precipitation Extreme Values of Xijiang River Basin |
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| ZHU Yingjie
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GUO Chunqing
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HUANG Xiakun.Trend Analysis of Precipitation Extreme Values of Xijiang River Basin[J].Hydrology,2012,32(2):72-77. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Yingjie GUO Chunqing HUANG Xiakun |
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| Institution: | 1(1.Guangxi Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau,Nanning 530023,China;2.College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin 541004,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the annual maximum 1d and 3d precipitation in the Xijiang River Basin from 1958 to 2007,the change curves of mean annual maximum 1d and 3d precipitation were made,and their variation trend was studied.Then,linear regression trend test was used to analyze the trend of annual maximum 1d and 3d precipitation from the 103 stations in the Xijiang River Basin during 1958-2007.Finally,Mann-Kendall and Spearman were used to make significance test of the annual maximum 1d and 3d precipitation.The results show that the mean annual maximum 1d and 3d precipitation present a upward trend,but not significant in the Xijiang River Basin;The annual maximum 1d and 3d precipitation obviously increase in the east and the northeast,in which the increase is most obvious in the northeast.In the background of global climate change,there are differences among the 6 representive stations of the annual maximum 1d and 3d precipitation variation trend in various areas,which means the northeast and north are the increasing areas,the rest are decreasing areas,but the change trends are not obvious. |
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| Keywords: | extreme precipitation trend analysis Guangxi Xijiang River |
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