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厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件循环演变过程的资料分析研究
作者姓名:Chao Jiping  Yuan Shaoyu  Chao Qingchen  Tian Jiwei
作者单位:Chao Jiping Yuan ShaoyuChao Qingchen and Tian JiweiNational Marine Environment Forecast Center,Beijing 100081Ocean University of Qingdao,Qingdao 266003National Climate Center,Beijing 100081
摘    要:利用1955-2000年热带、副热带太平洋地区次表层温度距平资料,构造了温度距平极值深度分布曲面图,它很接近20°温度面的深度分布,因此有理由认为这一深度曲面很接近热带温跃层的深度面。在温度距平极值深度曲面上,分析了20世纪60年代后期以来所有El Nino/La Nina事件正/负海温距平信号的分布和传播“轨迹”,发现如果以暖池次表层作为起点,则一般来说,暖水或冷水先是沿赤道极值深度面向东、向上传播或运动,到达赤道东太平洋海盆边界附近后,在那里停留几个月,然后转北运动,在北纬10度左右再折向西运动到西太平洋转向南返回到暖池,即在赤道北侧形成闭合回路。温度距平运动一圈需时2-4年。如果暖(冷)水的温度距平都很强,就会在2-4年的时间上出现两次相邻的El Nino(La Nina)事件,但可能是由于大气或海洋环境条件不合适,温度距平的强度在运动过程中有时会减弱,就不能形成El Nino(La Nina)事件,但暖(冷)水运动的“轨迹”仍可辨认。由于暖、冷水绕环路的运动交替出现,El Nino(La Nina)爆发前,在赤道西太平洋出现正(负)距平信号的同时,在东太平洋北纬10度左右会有负(正)距平信号出现,并且当正(负)距平信号向东传播时,负(正)距平信号向西传播,在赤道上表现为2-4年间隔的El Nino(La Nina)交

关 键 词:拉尼娜  厄尔尼诺  温度距平最大值曲面  Kelvin波  Rossby波  海气相互作用
收稿时间:22 October 2001

A data analysis study on the evolution of the El Niño/ La Niña cycle
Chao Jiping,Yuan Shaoyu,Chao Qingchen,Tian Jiwei.A data analysis study on the evolution of the El Ni?o/ La Ni?a cycle[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2002,19(5):837-844.
Authors:Chao Jiping  Yuan Shaoyu  Chao Qingchen  Tian Jiwei
Institution:National Marine En vironmen t Forecast Center, Beijing 100081,Ocean University of Qingduo, Qingdao 266003,National Climate Center, Beijing 100081,Ocean University of Qingduo, Qingdao 266003
Abstract:The curved surface of the maximum sea temperature anomaly (MSTA) was created from the JEDACsubsurface sea temperature anomaly data at the tropical Pacific between 1955 and 2000. It is quite similar tothe depth distribution of the 20°C isotherm, which is usually the replacement of thermocline. From the dis-tribution and moving trajectory of positive or negative sea temperature anomalies (STA) on the curved sur-face we analyzed all the El Nino and La Nina events since the later 1960s. Based on the analyses we foundthat, using the subsurface warm pool as the beginning point, the warm or cold signal propagates initiallyeastward and upward along the equatorial curved surface of MSTA to the eastern Pacific and stays thereseveral months and then to turn north, usually moving westward near 10°N to western Pacific and finallypropagates southward to return to warm pool to form an off-equator closed circuil. It takes about 2 to 4years for the temperature anomaly to move around the cycle. If the STA of warm (cold) water is strongenough, there will be two successive El Nino (La Nina) events during the period of 2 to 4 years. Sometime, itbecomes weak in motion due to the unsuitable oceanic or atmospheric condition. This kind process may notbe considered as an El Nino ( La Nina) event, but the moving trajectory of warm (cold) water can still berecognized. Because of the alternate between warm and cold water around the circuits, the positive(negative) anomaly signal in equatorial western Pacific coexists with negative (positive) anomaly signal near10 N in eastern Pacific before the outbreak of El Nino (La Nina) event. The signals move in the opposite di-rections. So it appears as El Nino (La Nina) in equator at 2-4 years intervals. The paper also analyzed sev-eral exceptional cases and discussed the effect and importance of oceanic circulation in the evolution of ElNino/La Nina event.
Keywords:El Nino (La Nina) events  curved surface of maximum sea temperature anomaly  Kelvin wave and Rossby wave  air-sea interaction
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