| 谈我国重大自然灾害的中长期综合预报问题 |
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| 引用本文： | 聂高众,高建国.谈我国重大自然灾害的中长期综合预报问题[J].地学前缘,1996,3(2):203-211. |
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| 作者姓名： | 聂高众 高建国 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家科委国家计委国家经贸委自然灾害综合研究组 |
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| 摘 要： | 由于自然灾害的发生不是地球某单一圈层内部的孤立行为，而是地球系统各圈层（地、水、气、生、冰）的相互作用加上某些天文因素触发的结果，所以灾害预测是一项跨学科的综合手段的研究。文章从能量的聚集、传递、释放等角度探讨了灾害发生的动力学机制及各圈层在其中所起的控制作用，并介绍了我们开展灾害综合预测研究的思路和模型框架。
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| 关 键 词： | 自然灾害，综合预报，前兆，预报模式 |
ON THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM OF COMPREHENSIVE DISASTER PREDICTIONS IN CHINA |
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| Nie Gaozhong,Gao Jianguo,Ma Zongjin.ON THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM OF COMPREHENSIVE DISASTER PREDICTIONS IN CHINA[J].Earth Science Frontiers,1996,3(2):203-211. |
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| Authors: | Nie Gaozhong Gao Jianguo Ma Zongjin |
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| Abstract: | The disaster occurrence is not an isolated action within single layer of the earth,but the result of comprehensive interaction among all layers of the earth in addition tosome astronomical reasons. So disaster prediction should be the synthetic research whichis related to many different subjects. In this paper, based on the study of assembly, movement and release of the disaster-breed energy, we make some attempts to reveal the mechanism of disaster occurences and the controlling function of every layer of the earth in thedisaster processes. Meanwhile, we have introduced our ideas for comprehensive predictionof disasters and our prediction model. |
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| Keywords: | natural disasters comprehensive prediction omen prediction model |
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