| 农村人口流动对地震灾害人员伤亡评估的影响研究?以张家口为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 李姜,李铁纯,张兴,郭彦宇.农村人口流动对地震灾害人员伤亡评估的影响研究?以张家口为例[J].震灾防御技术,2022,17(3):557-568. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李姜 李铁纯 张兴 郭彦宇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.河北省地震局, 石家庄 050021 |
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| 基金项目： | 河北省科技厅重点研发计划（18275404D、22375406D）；中国地震局地震应急青年重点任务（CEA_EDEM-202003） |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对农村人口流动的数据统计，利用Pearson相关分析法，分析不同因素下张家口地区村镇人口流动情况，发现流动人口率与人均水浇地面积和地理位置存在显著的相关性，并建立该区域村镇人口流动关系模型。通过实地调研张家口地区村镇人口数据，验证了村镇人口流动关系模型的适用性。基于公里格网人口、建筑物等基础数据，进行张家口地区设定地震灾害人员伤亡评估，结果表明，基于村镇人口流动关系模型修正后的人员伤亡评估结果与专家修正后的结果更接近。村镇人口流动关系模型可给出合理修正后的地震灾害人员伤亡评估结果，且更适用于6.0级以上有人员伤亡的地震评估。
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| 关 键 词： | 张家口地区 人口流动 Pearson相关分析法 地震灾害 现场调查 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-07-29 |
Study on the Impact of Rural Population Flow in Zhangjiakou on the Casualty Assessment of Earthquake Disasters |
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| Li Jiang,Li Tiechun,Zhang Xing,Guo Yanyu.Study on the Impact of Rural Population Flow in Zhangjiakou on the Casualty Assessment of Earthquake Disasters[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2022,17(3):557-568. |
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| Authors: | Li Jiang Li Tiechun Zhang Xing Guo Yanyu |
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| Institution: | 1.Earthquake Administration of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, 050021, China2.Hebei Academy of Building Sciences Co., Ltd, Shijiazhuang, 050021, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data statistics of rural population flow, pearson correlation analysis method is used to analyze the population flow of villages and towns in Zhangjiakou area under different factors. It is found that the floating population rate has significant correlation with the per capita irrigated land area and geographical location, and a relationship model of population flow in villages and towns in this area is established. Through the field survey of the population data of Zhangjiakou area, the applicability of the population flow relationship model of villages and towns is verified. Based on the basic data such as population and buildings in the kilometer grid, the casualty assessment of the earthquake disaster in Zhangjiakou area is conducted, and the result of the casualty assessment based on the population flow relationship model of villages and towns is closer to the result corrected by experts. The results show that the relationship model of population flow in villages and towns can give the reasonable revised evaluation results of casualties in earthquake disasters, and it is more suitable for the evaluation of earthquakes with casualties above M ≥ 6.0. |
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| Keywords: | Zhangjiakou area Population mobility Pearson correlation analysis Earthquake disaster Field investigation |
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