| 多变量均生函数的正交化筛选方案在季节降水预报中的试验研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩照宇,钱林清.多变量均生函数的正交化筛选方案在季节降水预报中的试验研究[J].南京气象学院学报,2000,23(3):422-427. |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩照宇 钱林清 |
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| 作者单位： | 山西省气象科学研究所,太原,030002 |
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| 摘 要： | 用预报量与多变量预报因子的均值生成函数，通过Ｇｒａｍ－Ｓｃｈｍｉｄｔ正交化使均值生成函数彼此正交，同时利用双评分准则确定入选预报模型的均生函数个数，最后建立山西省季节降水的预报模型。试验结果表明，该模型预报山西省季节降水的效果很好，是一种提高短期区域气候预报水平的可行方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 多变量 均生函数 正交化 双评分准则 降水预报 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999-10-20 |
EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF ORTHOGONALIZATION SCREENING SCHEME OF MUTI-VARIABLE MEAN GENERATION FUNCTION IN SEASONAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST |
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| Han Zhaoyu,Qian Linqing.EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF ORTHOGONALIZATION SCREENING SCHEME OF MUTI-VARIABLE MEAN GENERATION FUNCTION IN SEASONAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2000,23(3):422-427. |
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| Authors: | Han Zhaoyu Qian Linqing |
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| Abstract: | By using muti-variable mean generation f uncti on of the predictand and its predictor, the mean generation function is orthogon alized by means of the Gram-Schmidt's method. Meanwhile,the number of mean gene ration function has been selected in the forecast model by means of Couple Score Criterion. Finally, the forecast model of seasonal precipitation of Shanxi prov ince is established. The results indicate that the method is favorable in foreca st of seasonal precipitation of Shanxi province, and is feasible for improving t he accuracy of short-term regional climate forecast. |
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| Keywords: | muti-variable mean generation function or thogonalization couple score criterion forecast model |
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