| 昆仑山玉龙喀什河最大洪峰出现日期的灰色预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 汤奇成,周成虎.昆仑山玉龙喀什河最大洪峰出现日期的灰色预测[J].山地学报,1988(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 汤奇成 周成虎 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院、国家计划委员会地理研究所
(汤奇成)，中国科学院、国家计划委员会地理研究所(周成虎) |
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| 摘 要： | 玉龙喀什河是昆仑山北坡最大的河流——和田河的主要支流。玉龙喀什河同古孜洛克水文站夏洪严重。因此预测最大洪峰出现日期是十分有意义的。用灰色系统理论来预测最大洪峰出现日期,是以原始数据为基础,按累加生成,建立GM(1,1)模型,并通过模型求出平滑度,进而作相对误差检验,合格后再作预测。经过检验,预测基本上符合实际。
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| 关 键 词： | 昆仑山 玉龙喀什河 灰色预测 洪峰 残差 灰色系统 |
GREY-SYSTEM FORECAST OF THE DATE OF MAXIMUM FLOOD PEAK OCCURRENCE OF THE YULONGKASHEN RIVER |
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| Tang Qicheng Zhou Chenghu.GREY-SYSTEM FORECAST OF THE DATE OF MAXIMUM FLOOD PEAK OCCURRENCE OF THE YULONGKASHEN RIVER[J].Journal of Mountain Research,1988(3). |
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| Authors: | Tang Qicheng Zhou Chenghu |
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| Abstract: | The Yulongkashen River is the main river of the Hetian River which has maximum runoff in the north slope of the Kunlun Mountains. The summer flood in Tongguziluoke Station of the Yulongkashen River is very serious. So it's of great significance to predict the date in which floods occur. When predicting the date of flood occurrence with grey system forecasting methods, authors firstly develop a GM(1, 1) model by use of the accumulative series generated based on the original date, secondly calculate the smooth degree with the use of the model and then forecast the date after passing through the test of the relative error. The results which have been got are in accordance with the realities, compared with the measured date. |
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| Keywords: | Kunlun Mountains Yulongkashen River grey system forecast flood peak remainder error grey system |
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