| 1981—2013年6—7月江淮地区切变线及暴雨统计分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 马嘉理,姚秀萍.1981—2013年6—7月江淮地区切变线及暴雨统计分析[J].气象学报,2015,73(1):883-894. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马嘉理 姚秀萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京信息工程大学, 南京, 210044;民航华东空管局气象中心, 上海, 200335,气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京信息工程大学, 南京, 210044,气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京信息工程大学, 南京, 210044,气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京信息工程大学, 南京, 210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目(41230528)、国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2012CB955204)、江苏省高校自然科学研究项目(12KJB170011)、江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目PAPD、江苏省高校“青蓝工程”创新团队项目。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用第5次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)提供的39个全球气候模式模拟的1961—2005年逐月500 hPa位势高度场资料,以及同期美国国家环境预测中心再分析资料,通过经验正交函数分解提取主要模态,基于泰勒图方法、概率密度函数的Brier评分和显著性评分指标,探讨CMIP5模式对东亚500 hPa高度场主要模态时空结构的模拟能力,寻求具有较好东亚环流型态模拟能力的气候模式以及模拟较好的主模态。结果表明:(1) CMIP5模式能够模拟出东亚500 hPa高度场主要模态,且各模式对冬季主要模态时空结构的模拟能力都高于夏季。(2) 各模式对冬季模态(西太平洋遥相关型)模拟能力最强,第3模态最差,对冬季主要模态空间结构模拟较好的模式为IPSL-CM5B-LR、MPI-ESM-P、CMCC-CMS、FGOALS-g2、HadGEM2-ES;夏季第1模态空间结构模拟能力最强,其次分别为第2模态和东亚-太平洋型(简记第3模态),西太平洋遥相关型较差,对夏季主要模态空间结构模拟较好的模式为ECEARTH、CanESM2、CMCC-CM、GFDL-ESM2G、IPSL-CM5A-MR。(3)对主要模态时间系数概率密度函数特征的模拟评估表明,模式对冬季第2模态概率密度函数的模拟较好,其次为西太平洋遥相关型,其主要模态时间系数的概率密度函数模拟较好的模式为CESM1-FASTCHEM、HadGEM2-ES、INM-CM4、GISS-E2-H、BCC-CSM1-1;模式对夏季第2模态时间系数的概率密度函数模拟较好,其次分别为第3模态、西太平洋遥相关型,其主要模态时间系数概率密度函数模拟较好的模式为CCSM4、HadGEM2-CC、GFDL-CM3、MRI-CGCM3、NorESM1-M。(4)综合时空结构模式模拟能力,对冬季主要模态模拟较好的前5个模式为HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5B-LR、CESM1-FASTCHEM、INM-CM4、BCC-CSM1-1;夏季前5个模式为ECEARTH、CMCC-CM、CCSM4、CANESM2、MIROC5。
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| 关 键 词： | 第5次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5) 东亚500hPa高度场 主要模态时空结构 模式评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 1/4/2015 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 6/3/2014 12:00:00 AM |
Statistical analysis of the shear lines and torrential rains over the Yangtze-Huaihe river region during June-July in 1981-2013 |
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| MA Jiali and YAO Xiuping.Statistical analysis of the shear lines and torrential rains over the Yangtze-Huaihe river region during June-July in 1981-2013[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2015,73(1):883-894. |
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| Authors: | MA Jiali and YAO Xiuping |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Huadong Meteorology Center of CAAC, Shanghai 200335, China,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China and Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the 1961-2005 monthly 500 hPa geopotential height data from the Nation Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), this paper evaluates the winter's and summer's 500 hPa geopotential height in East Asia (EA) as are simulated by the 39 climate models in the the Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) historical simulation experiment. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), Taylor figures, Probability Density Functions (PDFs) and two assessment indicators have been used to find the models which are better in simulating the winter and summer circulation modes in EA. The results show that: (1)The models considered are able to simulate reasonably the main modes in both winter and summer, especially winter.(2) IPSL-CM5B-LR, MPI-ESM-P, CMCC-CMS, FGOALS-g2 and HadGEM2-ES are the models better at reproducing the winter's spatial structures, while ECEARTH, CanESM2, CMCC-CM, GFDL-ESM2G and IPSL-CM5A-MR are better at reproducing the summer's spatial structures. It's found that all the models considered are able to simulate reasonably these main modes with Western Pacific (WP) being the mode which is best spatially simulated and, the third mode being worst in the winter, but the first mode being the mode which is best spatially simulated with WP being worst in the summer. (3) From a temporal point of view, it is found that of all the modes for the winter the second mode simulations are best, then is WP, while for the summer the second mode also is simulated best, then are EAP and WP. CESM1-FASTCHEM, HadGEM2-ES, INM-CM4, GISS-E2-H and BCC-CSM1-1 are better at reproducing winter's PDF and CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, GFDL-CM3, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M are better at reproducing summer's. And, (4) considering of spatial and temporal structures, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5B-LR, CESM1-FASTCHEM, INM-CM4 and BCC-CSM1-1 are better than the other 34 models for the winter, and ECEARTH, CMCC-CM, CCSM4, CANESM2 and MIROC5 are better for the summer. |
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| Keywords: | CMIP5 500 hPa geopotential height in East Asia Main modes' spatial and temporal structures Model evaluation |
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