| 基于Copula函数的中国南方干旱风险特征研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘晓云,王劲松,李耀辉,杨金虎,岳平,田庆明,杨庆华.基于Copula函数的中国南方干旱风险特征研究[J].气象学报,2015,73(1):1080-1091. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘晓云 王劲松 李耀辉 杨金虎 岳平 田庆明 杨庆华 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气候中心, 北京, 100081;中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京, 100029,中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京, 100081,中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京, 100029,中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京, 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41221064、41405089、41475079)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1961—2012年1710个地面气象台站观测的逐日降水资料,对中国大陆雨季特征进行了分析。结果表明,雨季最早到来的地方是藏东南、滇西北的横断山脉中西部地区;接着江南地区进入雨季;之后随着夏季风的爆发,全国大部分地区进入雨季。而雨季结束最早的地区在江南地区,较迟结束的地区在华西地区、南海地区,最迟是在新疆西北部地区。就雨季持续时间而言,华北地区和西藏西部及其与新疆南部相接的部分地区雨季持续时间最短,横断山脉中西部地区、华西地区和南海地区雨季较长。通过对多年平均逐候降水进行经验正交函数(EOF)分解,能较好地将主要的降水季节演变特征分离出来,分析发现,第1、第2和第3模态分别反映了夏季、春季和秋季降水为主要特征的降水空间结构。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水 季节演变 经验正交函数 区域差异 |
| 收稿时间： | 4/8/2014 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2015/9/24 0:00:00 |
Characteristics of drought risk in southern China based on the Copula function |
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| LIU Xiaoyun,WANG Jingsong,LI Yaohui,YANG Jinhu,YUE Ping,TIAN Qingming and YANG Qinghua.Characteristics of drought risk in southern China based on the Copula function[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2015,73(1):1080-1091. |
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| Authors: | LIU Xiaoyun WANG Jingsong LI Yaohui YANG Jinhu YUE Ping TIAN Qingming and YANG Qinghua |
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| Institution: | National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China,National Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China,National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China and National Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | Using the daily station rain gauge data of the 1710 stations during 1961-2012, the characteristics of the rainy season in Mainland China has been analyzed. For the onset time of the rainy season, the earliest area locates in the central western part of the Hengduan Mountain. Since then, the rainy season comes to the areas south of the Yangtze River. Next, with the outbreak of the summer monsoon, most of China is in the rainy season. The ending of the rainy season firstly appears in the region south of the Yangtze River. Western China and the South China Sea show a later ending time with the latest ending time occurring in the northwest of Xinjiang. In terms of the duration of the rainy season, the shortest duration areas are North China and west the Tibetan Plateau. The rainy season in the central western part of the Hengduan Mountain, western China and the South China Sea is the longest. The temporal and spatial variations of mean pentad precipitation are analyzed by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method. The first, second and third EOF mode respectively reflect the spatial characteristics of rainfall mainly occurring in the summer, spring and autumn. |
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| Keywords: | Precipitation Seasonal evolution Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) Regional difference |
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