| 华北地区未来强震概率统计分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑建常,华爱军,周翠英.华北地区未来强震概率统计分析[J].高原地震,2005,17(4):18-23. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑建常 华爱军 周翠英 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东省地震局,山东,济南,250014 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“十五”科技攻关计划（3＋2）延续项目子专题成果（2004BA601801-04-02）. |
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| 摘 要： | 应用泊松模型的极值分布对华北地区的地震活动趋势进行估计和分析，结果表明，2008年前华北地区发生6级以上地震的危险性较大；2005年地震活动短期内可能还会持续目前较弱的态势，但未来1～2年内华北地区地震活动很有可能明显增强。
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| 关 键 词： | 华北地区 地震趋势 复发周期 概率统计 地震活动 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-586X(2005)04-0018-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 03 30 2005 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 12 5 2005 12:00AM |
STATISTIC ANALYSIS OF STRONG SHOCKS PROBABILITY IN NORTH CHINA FOR THE COMING SEVERAL YEARS |
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| ZHENG Jian-chang,HUA Ai-jun,ZHOU Cui-ying.STATISTIC ANALYSIS OF STRONG SHOCKS PROBABILITY IN NORTH CHINA FOR THE COMING SEVERAL YEARS[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,2005,17(4):18-23. |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Jian-chang HUA Ai-jun ZHOU Cui-ying |
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| Institution: | Earthquake Administration of Shandong Province, Jinan 250014, China |
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| Abstract: | With extremum disribution of Poisson process,this paper estimates the tendency of earthquakes activity in North China.The result has shown that the risk is increasing that strong earthquakes with M>6.0 will be occurred in North China;on the other hand,earthquakes activity will be sustained for a short-term at a lower level in 2005,but it will be obviously increased in coming 1 or 2 years. |
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| Keywords: | North China Earthquake tendency Recurrence period Probability statistics Earthquake Activity |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
