| 气候学研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 王绍武.气候学研究进展[J].地球科学进展,1996,11(2):169-177. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王绍武 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京大学地球物理系 |
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| 摘 要： | 回顾了80年代到90年代中期，气候学研究在几个方面的重要进展。共分析了五个问题：①20世纪气候变率，重点讨论年代际变率及气候突变；②ENSO模拟与预测，总结比较了各种模式的模拟与预测结果，着重讨论了90年代前半期ENSO发展的特点；③ENSO与季风，指出亚洲夏季风在ENSO循环中的重要作用；④气候可预报性研究，总结了月、季预报试验，介绍了用观测下边界强迫AGCM的研究结果；⑤气候变化成因分析，着重说明温室效应研究的不确定性及自然因子如太阳活动、火山活动在气候变化中的作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 气候可预报性 气候预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 1995-10-10 |
PROGRESS IN CLIMATOLOGICAL STUDIES |
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| Wang Shaowu.PROGRESS IN CLIMATOLOGICAL STUDIES[J].Advance in Earth Sciences,1996,11(2):169-177. |
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| Authors: | Wang Shaowu |
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| Institution: | Department of Geophysics,Beijing University，Beijing 100871 |
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| Abstract: | Recent progress in climatological studies for the period of 1980's and early 1990's were reviewed.The following problems were discussed :(1) Climate variabilitied in the 20th century .Inter-decadal variabilities and abrupt change of climate were emphasized;(2)Simulation and prediction of ENSO.The results of a series of models were compared each other. Distinguishing feature of ENSO in early 1990's was studied;(3)ENSO and monsoon. The important role of summer monsoon in evolution of ENSO cycle was indicated;(4)Climate predictability . Results of monthly and seasonal prediction and simulation with observed external forcing were reviewed; (5)Analysis of factors responsible for climatic change.Uncertainties of greenhouse effect and role of solar activity and volcanism were examined. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Climate predictability Climate prediction |
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