| 黔南州1989-2019年暴雨时空分布特征及风险落区分析 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陆莎莎 冯正艳 柏晓波 吴良标 杨胜忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 都匀市气象局,三都县气象局,瓮安县气象局,都匀市气象局,黔东南州气象局 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用贵州省黔南州12个国家级自动气象站1989-2019年的地面降水观测资料,采用气候倾向率、线性回归、Kriging法、滑动t检验、暴雨风险因子加权分析等方法,分析了黔南州1989-2019年暴雨时空分布特征及风险落区,主要得出以下结论：(1)黔南州暴雨日数呈现增长趋势,暴雨主要出现在5-9月,大暴雨主要出现在5-8月。(2)暴雨在黔南州有两大中心,分布位于中东部的都匀地区和西部的长顺地区；黔南州大暴雨主要在都匀至三都地区,其次影响长顺地区。(3)黔南州大部分地区暴雨均呈现增加趋势,暴雨气候倾向率主要有三个强中心,分别为长顺、贵定、三都。(4)6月暴雨集中在都匀地区,7-8月南多北少,9月东部西部多、中部偏少；大暴雨5月东部西部多、北部东南部偏少,6月集中在东部都匀、三都地区,8月主要集中在东部三都、西部长顺地区。(5)暴雨日数在2013年前后存在一次突变,暴雨历史风险落区与趋势风险落区大值区主要在东部及西部地区,高风险与较高风险面积和的占比分别为黔南州总面积的30.3%、28.1%。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨，时空分布，滑动t检验，风险落区。 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021/9/23 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021/11/17 0:00:00 |
Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Risk Areas of Heavy Rain in Qiannan Prefecture from 1989 to 2019 |
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| Authors: | Lu Shash Feng Zhengyan Bai Xiaobo Wu Liangbiao and Yang Shengzhong |
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| Institution: | Duyun Meteorological Bureau,Duyun,Sandu County Meteorological Bureau,Weng''an County Meteorological Bureau,Weng''an,Duyun Meteorological Bureau,Duyun,Qiandongnan Meteorological Bureau,Kaili |
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| Abstract: | This paper uses ground precipitation observation data from 12 national-level automatic weather stations in Qiannan Prefecture, Guizhou Province from 1989 to 2019, and uses methods such as climate tendency rate, linear regression, Kriging method, sliding t test, and weighted analysis of rainstorm risk factors to analyze Guizhou Province. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and risk areas of the torrential rains in Nanzhou from 1989 to 2019 mainly draw the following conclusions: (1) The number of rainstorm days in Qiannan Prefecture is showing an increasing trend. The rainstorm mainly occurs from May to September, and the heavy rainstorm mainly occurs from May to August. (2) The heavy rain in Qiannan Prefecture has two major centers, which are located in the Duyun area in the middle east and the Changshun area in the west; the heavy rain in Qiannan Prefecture is mainly in the Duyun to Sandu area, and secondly affects the Changshun area. (3) Heavy rains in most areas of Qiannan Prefecture show an increasing trend. There are mainly three strong centers in the climatic tendency rate of heavy rains, namely Changshun, Guiding, and Sandu. (4) June torrential rains are concentrated in Duyun area. From July to August, there is more in the south and less in the north. September is more in the east and west and less in the middle. Heavy rains are more in the east and west in May and less in the north and southeast, and concentrated in the east in June. In the Yun and Sandu regions, August was mainly concentrated in Sandu in the east and Changshun in the west. (5) There was a sudden change in the number of rainstorm days around 2013. The historical risk area and trend risk area of rainstorm are mainly in the East and West, and the proportion of the sum of high-risk and high-risk areas is 30.3% and 28.1% of the total area of Qiannan Prefecture, respectively. |
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| Keywords: | Heavy rain temporal and spatial distribution sliding t-test risk drop zone |
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