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| 三江平原沼泽性河流径流演变的驱动力分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 罗先香,邓伟,何岩,栾兆擎.三江平原沼泽性河流径流演变的驱动力分析[J].地理学报,2002,57(5):603-610. |
| 作者姓名： | 罗先香 邓伟 何岩 栾兆擎 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,长春,130012;青岛海洋大学化工学院,青岛,266030 2. 中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,长春,130012 3. 中国科学院人事教育局,北京,100864 |
| 基金项目： | 中国科学院“湖沼三期”特别支持项目资助（ZKHZ-3-5） |
| 摘 要： | 在分析三江平原典型沼泽性河流挠力河径流演变特征及趋势的基础上，应用灰色关联分析和径向基函数网络等方法，探讨了引起径流量减少和发生突变的原因，分析结果表明：当地河川径流演化与沼泽化流的地理特征以及近50年来沼泽及沼泽化土地的大规模开垦和水资源的开发利用有密切的关系，人类活动是本区河川径流演变的主要驱动力，气候变化在径流演变中所起的作用相应减少，沼泽湿地对区域水系统的水量平衡产生着重要的影响，在流域下垫面已明显变化，水文循环出现变异的情况下，必须加强沼泽湿地保护的水的调控和管理。 |
| 关 键 词： | 三江平原 沼泽性河流 灰色关联分析 径向基函数 驱动力 挠力河 |
| 收稿时间： | 2002-02-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年2月10日 |
Driving Forces of Runoff Changes for Marshy Rivers in Sanjiang Plain |
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| LUO Xianxiang,DENG Wei,HE Yan,Luan Zhaoqing.Driving Forces of Runoff Changes for Marshy Rivers in Sanjiang Plain[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2002,57(5):603-610. | |
| Authors: | LUO Xianxiang DENG Wei HE Yan Luan Zhaoqing |
| Institution: | 1. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural Ecology, CAS, Changchun 130012, China; 2. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100864, China |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the characteristics and tendency of annual runoff changes of Naolihe River are analyzed, which is regarded as a typical marshy river in Sanjiang plain. Moreover, the aid of gray interrelation analysis and the radial basis function network are applied to discuss the reason of runoff decrease and abrupt changes. The annual runoff of two representative stations of Naolihe River presents the reduced tendency from 1964-1989 using Kendall method. According to mutative point analysis, the changes of annual runoff of Baoqing station that lies in the upstream of Naolihe River divide into two periods covering 1964-1973 and 1974-1989. The range of runoff is 3.56 ×108 m3. The changes of annual runoff of Caizuizi station that lies in the backward position of Naolihe River also divide into two periods covering 1964-1975 and 1976-1989. The range of runoff is 6.29 ×108 m3. Precipitation of the drainage area is the best sensitive factor to runoff changes. The concept of entropy is applied to study the nonuniformity on precipitation of distribution. The results show neither apparent spatial difference nor characteristic of temporal runoff change tendency exists in precipitation. Therefore the climate is not a major factor influencing runoff changes. According to nonlinear and uncertain relationship between various kinds of influencing factors and surface runoff, the model of radial basis function network that can reflect their relationship is built to predict the natural runoff of the drainage area, and be compared with actual measured runoff. The results show that natural runoff of Naolihe River decreases 60% from 1976 to 1980 and decreases 30% after 1980. These characteristics and tendency of runoff changes are related with the characteristics of marshy drainage areas and human activities, especially reclamation of wetlands and exhaustion of water resource largely. Human activities are the major driving force of runoff changes. Marshes have had significant influence on water balance of regional hydrologic systems. It is essential to strengthen the control and management of water resources in order to protect marshes when ground feature of a drainage basin and hydrologic cycle have changed clearly. It is beneficial to sustained utilization of water resource. |
| Keywords: | Sanjiang Plain marshy river gray interrelation analysis radial basis function driving force Naolihe River |
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