Prediction of SST anomalies of east Pacific Ocean (Nino 3 region) using a statistical model |
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| Authors: | A K Srivastava K C Sinha Ray |
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| Institution: | (1) India Meteorological Department, Pune, India, IN |
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| Abstract: | Summary Average SST anomalies of OCT-DEC months for Nino-3 region are predicted using the following parameters – (i) April rain over
Himachal Pradesh, (ii) Darwin pressure change (January–April), (iii) Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti–Darwin) and (iv) SST
anomalies of Nino-3 region in the month of May. Principal component analysis is used to orthogonalise the predictors before
using them in the regression equation. The first two principal components, which explain nearly 73% of the variance, are used
to fit a regression line. The period 1951–1985 is used as the calibration period for the model and the period 1986–1997 as
the verification period for the forecast.
The Brier score with respect to a reference forecast (persistence) for the independent period is found to be 0.82 which is
indicative of good forecast skill.
Received April 1, 1999 Revised January 17, 2000 |
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