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| 东北西部粮食生产时空格局变化及优化布局研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈玉洁,张平宇,刘世薇,谭俊涛.东北西部粮食生产时空格局变化及优化布局研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(9):1397-1407. |
| 作者姓名： | 陈玉洁 张平宇 刘世薇 谭俊涛 |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,吉林 长春 130102 2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金应急项目(71541021)、中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院重大咨询项目(Y02015005)、国家自然科学基金面上项目(41571152)、国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41201159,41201160,41601124)、国家科技支撑计划课题(2008BAH31B06)、中国科学院重点部署项目(KSZD-EW-Z-021)资助 |
| 摘 要： | 利用2003~2013年东北西部各县市粮食生产统计数据,运用聚类分析、粮食贡献度和PSR模型方法,分析东北西部粮食生产格局变化及其影响因素,根据国家“镰刀弯”地区规划提出的玉米种植面积调减目标,对各县市具体调减值进行核算,得出以下主要结论。从2003年以来,粮食播种面积和产量明显向玉米、水稻两种作物集中,而相对低产的大豆所占比例明显下降;粮食生产格局发生明显变化,多数地区被以玉米为主的类型区取代。2003~2013年东北西部粮食增产主要归因于种植面积扩大,其次是粮食单产提高,受粮食作物结构影响较小。东北西部耕地生态安全评价值均小于0.6,处于不安全级至临界安全级阈值范围内,其中不安全级和较不安全级所占比重为97.01%,集中呈片状分布,亟待调整区域种植结构以提高耕地生态安全。东北西部玉米播种面积调减总目标为145.20万hm2,其中农牧交错带调减113.23万hm2,冷凉区调减31.97万hm2,调减地区主要集中在赤峰市、通辽市、兴安盟、吉林西部和辽宁西部地区的部分县市等玉米为主的类型区。东北西部各县市在调减玉米种植面积的过程中,应充分考虑耕地生态安全、农民的生计替代和利益补偿等问题,做到科学、合理、有序地调减玉米种植面积。 |
| 关 键 词： | 粮食生产 种植结构 优化布局 东北西部 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-04-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016-08-23 |
The Spatio-temporal Pattern Change and Optimum Layout of Grain Production in the West of Northeast China |
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| Yujie Chen,Pingyu Zhang,Shiwei Liu,Juntao Tan.The Spatio-temporal Pattern Change and Optimum Layout of Grain Production in the West of Northeast China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(9):1397-1407. | |
| Authors: | Yujie Chen Pingyu Zhang Shiwei Liu Juntao Tan |
| Institution: | 1.Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, Jilin 130102, China 2. University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China |
| Abstract: | Using grain production statistical data at county level from 2003 to 2013, this article analyzes the spatio-temporal pattern and its main driving factor of grain production in the west of Northeast China. Based on K-means cluster analysis, grain production contribution rate and PSR conceptual framework model is established. According to the given target of reducing maize sown area in the planned "sickle-shape" area of China, theoretic target of specific reducing maize sown area is calculated at county level in the west of Northeast China. This can provide a scientific reference for the optimum layout of grain production and change of grain structure. The results indicate that grain sown area and grain production has presented a rising trend in the west of Northeast China since 2003. More specifically, maize and rice have an advantage in grain sown area and production quantities, while the proportion of soybean decreases. Spatial pattern of grain production in the west of Northeast China had changed apparently. Most of this region has been replaced by the maize-based type due to an expansion of maize planting. The grain sown area, rather than the grain yield per hectare and inner-grain structure, is the main influential factor from the result of grain production contribution rate during 2003 to 2013. Evaluation composite index score of cultivated land ecological security in the west of Northeast China were all under 0.6 and all these composite index scores were in the range of the threshold interval between insecurity type and critical-insecurity type. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the insecurity type and relative-insecurity type were dominant, of which the percentage was 97.01%, and these two type region were concentrated-distribution. Therefore, measures must be taken urgently to adjust the grain structure for improving land ecological security in the west of Northeast China. Given the target of reducing maize sown area in the "sickle-shape" area and the theoretic result of PSR framework model, the theoretically calculated planning target of reducing maize sown area in the west of Northeast China is totally 1.45×106 hm2 (21.78×106 mu). In more detail, the theoretic reducing maize sown area is 1.13×106 hm2 (16.98×106 mu) in the agro-pasture transitional zone and the theoretic reducing maize sown area is 0.32×106 hm2 (4.80×106 mu) in the north cold region. On the basis of theoretic calculation, the regions of reducing maize sown area are mainly distributed in some counties of Chifeng City, Tongliao City, Xingan League, in the west of Jilin Province, in the west of Liaoning Province and some maize-based type region. According to previous analysis and results, reducing land should be conducted based on local ecology, economy and society conditions in the process of reducing maize sown area at county level. Simultaneously, land ecological security, the peasant livelihood substitute and benefit compensation should be taken fully into account to reduce maize sown area scientifically, rationally and sequentially. |
| Keywords: | grain production planting structure optimum layout west of Northeast China |
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