| 改进的热带气旋路径模糊概率预报方法试验总结 |
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| 引用本文： | 李晓娟,刘壮华,张毅,毛绍荣.改进的热带气旋路径模糊概率预报方法试验总结[J].气象研究与应用,2001,22(3):26-28. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李晓娟 刘壮华 张毅 毛绍荣 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州中心气象台, |
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| 摘 要： | 用改进的热带气旋路径模糊概率预报方法对１９９８—２０００年进入预报区并达到起报条件的１３个热带气旋作了４７次预报试验，２４ｈ平均误差为１１６．８ｋｍ，４８ｈ平均误差为２８１．０ｈｍ。其中模糊概率大于７０％的共有８次，２４ｈ平均误差为８７．９ｋｍ，４８ｈ平均误差为２０７．６ｋｍ，均明显小于总平均误差，达到概率越大误差越小的理想效果。同时试验表明方法对路径发生明显转折的热带气旋有较好的预报能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 模糊概率 对比试验 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-5191(2001)03-0026-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年7月19日 |
Summary of Forecast by Improved Tropical Cyclone Route Fuzzy Probability |
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| LI Xiao-juan,LIU Zhuang-hua,ZHANG Yi,MAO Shao-rong.Summary of Forecast by Improved Tropical Cyclone Route Fuzzy Probability[J].Journal of Guangxi Meteorology,2001,22(3):26-28. |
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| Authors: | LI Xiao-juan LIU Zhuang-hua ZHANG Yi MAO Shao-rong |
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| Abstract: | times of forecast tests are done for the 13 tropical cyclones entering the forecasting area and reaching up to the forecast conditions during 1998 ~ 2000 by the way of improved tropical cyclone route fuzzy probability. The average error in 24 hours is 116. 8km, and that in 48 hours is 281. 0km. Tests with the fuzzy probability higher than 70% are 8, with the average error in 24 hours being 87. 9km and that in 48 hours being 207. 6km, both are much lower than the total aver- age error, achieving the effect of the higher the probability, the smaller the error. In the mean time, the tests prove that this kind of forecast method is especially suitable for forecasting the tropical cyclone having an obvious turning point in its route. |
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| Keywords: | tropical cyclone fuzzy probability contrast test |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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