Cyclicity of late Holocene seismicity in the Alpine-Himalayan belt |
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| Authors: | V G Trifonov |
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| Institution: | 1. Geological Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pyzhevskii per. 7, Moscow, 119017, Russia
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| Abstract: | It has been shown for particular seismic zones and the Alpine-Himalayan Orogenic Belt as a whole that in addition to Fedotov cycles, the long-period hypercycles of seismicity are distinguished. Long-period variations were revealed in Syria, in southern and central segments of the El-Ghab Fault Zone of the Dead Sea Transform (EG DST), and at the southwestern end of the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ). The EG DST demonstrates a ～1800-year hypercycle with a maximum in the 3rd-7th and the 19th-20th centuries A.D. To reveal variations in seismicity in the entire central part of the orogenic belt, we have corrected evidence for historical earthquakes, taking into account the probability of missing events and the area of their regular recording domains. As a result, we displayed maximums of seismic energy release from the mid-17th to mid-20th century A.D.; from the mid-4th to the end of the 6th century; and in the 15th-13th centuries B.C. When interpreting hypercycles, it is important to keep in mind that variation of seismicity in EG DST correlates with variation of the rate of elastic deformation accumulation, probably reflecting variability of the stress-and-strain state in the region and of velocity of tectonic movements in active domains. After additional investigations, hypercycles could be taken into account for to refine the seismic hazard estimate. |
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