Future changes in cyclone climatology over Europe as inferred from a regional climate simulation |
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| Authors: | P Lionello U Boldrin F Giorgi |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Material Science, University of Salento, Via per Arnesano, Lecce, Italy;(2) University of Padua, Padua, Italy;(3) ICTP, Trieste, Italy |
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| Abstract: | This study analyzes the cyclone climatology in regional climate model simulations of present day (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100,
A2 and B2 emission scenarios) european climate conditions. The model domain covers the area from Scandinavia to Northern Africa
and from the Eastern Atlantic to Russia at a horizontal grid spacing of 50 km. Compared to present day, in the A2 and B2 scenario
conditions the annual average storm track intensity increases over the North-East Atlantic and decreases over Russia and the
Eastern Mediterranean region. This overall change pattern is larger in the A2 than in the B2 simulations. However, the cyclone
climatology change signal shows a large intermonthly variability and important differences across European regions. The largest
changes are found over the North-East Atlantic, where the storm track intensity increases in winter and decreases in summer.
A significant reduction of storm track intensity is found during late summer and autumn over the Mediterranean region, and
from October to January over Russia. The number of cyclones decreases in future conditions throughout Europe, except over
the Central Europe and Mediterranean regions in summer (where it increases). The frequency of intense cyclones and the depth
of extreme cyclones increase over the North-East Atlantic, decrease over Russia and show an irregular response over the rest
of the domain.
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