Machine learning for pore-water pressure time-series prediction: Application of recurrent neural networks |
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| Authors: | Xin Wei Lulu Zhang Hao-Qing Yang Limin Zhang Yang-Ping Yao |
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| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 800 Dongchuan Road, Shanghai 200240, China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Advanced Ship and Deep-Sea Exploration(CISSE), Shanghai 200240, China;Shanghai Key Laboratory for Digital Maintenance of Buildings and Infrastructure, Shanghai 200240, China;Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China;Department of Civil Engineering, School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, 37 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China |
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| Abstract: | Knowledge of pore-water pressure (PWP) variation is fundamental for slope stability. A precise prediction of PWP is difficult due to complex physical mechanisms and in situ natural variability. To explore the applicability and advantages of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) on PWP prediction, three variants of RNNs, i.e., standard RNN, long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) are adopted and compared with a traditional static artificial neural network (ANN), i.e., multi-layer perceptron (MLP). Measurements of rainfall and PWP of representative piezometers from a fully instrumented natural slope in Hong Kong are used to establish the prediction models. The coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) are used for model evaluations. The influence of input time series length on the model performance is investigated. The results reveal that MLP can provide acceptable performance but is not robust. The uncertainty bounds of RMSE of the MLP model range from 0.24 ?kPa to 1.12 ?kPa for the selected two piezometers. The standard RNN can perform better but the robustness is slightly affected when there are significant time lags between PWP changes and rainfall. The GRU and LSTM models can provide more precise and robust predictions than the standard RNN. The effects of the hidden layer structure and the dropout technique are investigated. The single-layer GRU is accurate enough for PWP prediction, whereas a double-layer GRU brings extra time cost with little accuracy improvement. The dropout technique is essential to overfitting prevention and improvement of accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | Pore-water pressure Slope Multi-layer perceptron Recurrent neural networks Long short-term memory Gated recurrent unit |
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