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Improve the prediction of summer precipitation in the Southeastern China by a hybrid statistical downscaling model |
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| Authors: | Liu Ying Fan Ke |
| Institution: | 1. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China 3. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China 4. Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China |
| Abstract: | We attempt to apply year-to-year increment prediction to develop an effective statistical downscaling scheme for summer (JJA, June–July–August) rainfall prediction at the station-to-station scale in Southeastern China (SEC). The year-to-year increment in a variable was defined as the difference between the current year and the previous year. This difference is related to the quasi-biennial oscillation in interannual variations in precipitation. Three predictors from observations and six from three general circulation models (GCMs) outputs of the development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to interannual prediction (DEMETER) project were used to establish this downscaling model. The independent sample test and the cross-validation test show that the downscaling scheme yields better predicted skill for summer precipitation at most stations over SEC than the original DEMETER GCM outputs, with greater temporal correlation coefficients and spatial anomaly correlation coefficients, as well as lower root-mean-square errors. |
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