| North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the Western North Pacific typhoon frequency? |
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| 作者单位： | FAN Ke Institute of Atmospheric Physics，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100029，China; Department of Atmospheric Science，Yun-nan University，Kunming 650091，China |
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| 摘 要： | The relationship between the sea ice cover in the North Pacific and the typhoon frequency has been studied in this paper. It follows that the index for the sea ice cover in the North Pacific (ISA) both in December-January-February (DJF) and in March-April-May (MAM) is negatively correlated with annual typhoon number over the western North Pacific (TNWNP) during 1965―2004, with correlation coeffi-cients of -0.42 and -0.49 respectively (above 99% significant level). Large sea ice cover in the North Pacific tends to decrease TNWNP. Positive ISA (MAM) is associated with the tropical circulation and SST anomalies in the North Pacific, which may lead to unfavorable dynamic and thermal conditions for typhoon genesis over WNP from June to October (JJASO). The variability of the atmospheric circula-tion over the North Pacific, associated with the ISA anomaly in MAM is connected to the tropical at-mospheric circulation variability in MAM via the teleconnection wave train. Besides, as the tropical circulation has strong seasonal persistency from the MAM to JJASO, thus, the ISA in MAM-related variability of the tropical atmospheric circulation as well as the SST can affect the typhoon activity over the western North Pacific.
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| 收稿时间： | 29 December 2006 |
| 修稿时间： | 2 March 2007 |
North Pacific sea ice cover,a predictor for the Western North Pacific typhoon frequency? |
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| Authors: | Fan Ke |
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| Institution: | Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;Department of Atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China |
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| Abstract: | The relationship between the sea ice cover in the North Pacific and the typhoon frequency has been studied in this paper.
It follows that the index for the sea ice cover in the North Pacific (ISA) both in December-January-February (DJF) and in
March-April-May (MAM) is negatively correlated with annual typhoon number over the western North Pacific (TNWNP) during 1965–2004,
with correlation coefficients of −0.42 and −0.49 respectively (above 99% significant level). Large sea ice cover in the North
Pacific tends to decrease TNWNP. Positive ISA (MAM) is associated with the tropical circulation and SST anomalies in the North
Pacific, which may lead to unfavorable dynamic and thermal conditions for typhoon genesis over WNP from June to October (JJASO).
The variability of the atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific, associated with the ISA anomaly in MAM is connected
to the tropical atmospheric circulation variability in MAM via the teleconnection wave train. Besides, as the tropical circulation
has strong seasonal persistency from the MAM to JJASO, thus, the ISA in MAM-related variability of the tropical atmospheric
circulation as well as the SST can affect the typhoon activity over the western North Pacific.
Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40631005, 40620130113 and 40221503) |
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| Keywords: | typhoon sea ice cover North Pacific teleconnection |
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