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| 湿度因子对适应性观测敏感区估算的影响研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 张宇,陈德辉,薛纪善,马旭林.湿度因子对适应性观测敏感区估算的影响研究[J].气象学报,2012,70(1):91-100. |
| 作者姓名： | 张宇 陈德辉 薛纪善 马旭林 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象科学研究院,北京,100081;南京信息工程大学,南京,210044 2. 国家气象中心,北京,100081 3. 中国气象科学研究院,北京,100081 4. 南京信息工程大学,南京,210044 |
| 基金项目： | 国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项项目(GYHY201006016);国家自然科学基金项目(41105068、40805045) |
| 摘 要： | 马旭林2008年的基于集合卡尔曼变换适应性观测敏感区的估算方案能得到较为合理的敏感区,但其未考虑湿度因子的影响。在原方案基础上增加了湿度因子,根据计算资料与度量标准的不同,搭建3个方案与其比较,并选用2008年年初冰冻雨雪灾害天气个例进行对比模拟试验。结果表明,原方案的敏感区较为分散,且当目标时刻与验证时刻重合时,存在虚假的信号方差大值区;加入湿度因子后能有效抑制虚假敏感区,改进度量标准后能得到较为理想的结果;若只利用湿度场进行敏感区估算,计算效果最优,在目标观测时刻所得敏感区最为集中并在目标时刻和验证时刻重合时无虚假信号方差大值区。 |
| 关 键 词： | 适应性观测 湿度因子 敏感区 冰冻雨雪灾害 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010/1/27 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 1/5/2011 12:00:00 AM |
Study of the influence of the humidity factor on estimation in the adaptive observation sensitive region |
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| ZHANG Yu,HEN Dehui,XUE Jishan and MA Xulin.Study of the influence of the humidity factor on estimation in the adaptive observation sensitive region[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2012,70(1):91-100. | |
| Authors: | ZHANG Yu HEN Dehui XUE Jishan and MA Xulin |
| Institution: | 1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China 2.Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China3.National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081,China |
| Abstract: | The ETKF(Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter)-DRY adaptive observation scheme can obtain the relative accurate sensitive region,but it hasn’t contained the humidity factor.This article is based on the ETKF-DRY scheme developed by Ma(2008).According to the difference of the data and the metrics we constructed three different schemes,and compared with the old one.We choose the freezing disaster occurred in the early 2008 as an example.The results show that the sensitive area which is calculated by the old one is more scattered,and there are false sensitive areas when the verification time is equal to the adaptive observation time;with the adding of the humidity factor and the changing of the metrics the false sensitive areas have an apparent decrease;the ETKF-WET-E6 system which only contains the humidity factor has the best results,say,the sensitive areas are more concentrated at the adaptive observation time and there are no false sensitive areas when the verification time is equal to the adaptive observation time. |
| Keywords: | Adaptive observation Humidity factor Sensitive region Freezing rain disaster |
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