Secular Behavior of Solar Magnetic Activity: Nonstationary Time-Series Analysis of the Sunspot Record |
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| Authors: | Verdes PF Granitto PM Ceccatto HA |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute for Environmental Physics, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 229, D-69120 Heidelberg, Germany;(2) Instituto de Física Rosario, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas and Universidad Nacional de Rosario, Blvd. 27 de Febrero 210 Bis, S2000EZP Rosario, Argentina |
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| Abstract: | The sunspot record of solar magnetic activity is studied as a nonstationary time series by means of a previously developed
algorithm for treating perturbed dynamical systems. This approach incorporates secular changes into the modeling process through
an external driving parameter, whose temporal behavior is shown to correspond in this case to the long-term trend of the sunspot
record. Our method is able to reduce by approximately 13% the prediction error of this series when compared to the standard
stationary approach. Such a reduction is remarkable in view of the benchmark status of the sunspot record in the statistical
literature and, moreover, the fact that this gain is obtained over the performance of an already very competitive modeling
technique based on ensembles of artificial neural networks. |
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