Economic impacts on key Barents Sea fisheries arising from changes in the strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation |
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| Authors: | P Michael Link Richard SJ Tol |
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| Institution: | 1. Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Center for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany;2. Research Group Climate Change and Security, KlimaCampus Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany;3. International Max-Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany;4. Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland;5. Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;6. Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;7. Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA |
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| Abstract: | A bioeconomic model of key fisheries of the Barents Sea is run with scenarios generated by an earth system model of intermediate complexity to assess how the Barents Sea fisheries of cod (Gadus morhua) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) are affected by changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) arising from anthropogenic climate change. Changes in hydrographic conditions have an impact on recruitment success and survival rates, which constitute a lasting effect on the stocks. The economic development of the fisheries is determined for the 21st century, considering a purely stock size based and a coupled stock size-hydrography based harvesting strategy. Results show that a substantial weakening of the THC leads to impaired cod stock development, causing the associated fishery to become unprofitable in the long run. Simultaneous improvements in capelin stock development help the capelin fishery, but are insufficient to offset the losses incurred by the cod fishery. A comparison of harvest strategies reveals that in times of high variability in stock development, coupled stock size-hydrography based management leads to more stable economic results of these fisheries than the stock size based fishing strategy. |
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| Keywords: | Bioeconomic modeling Fisheries Barents Sea Thermohaline circulation |
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