| 川滇地区地震动预测模型及其对2021年漾濞6.4级地震的适用性 |
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| 引用本文： | 王中伟,胡进军,张辉,靳超越,胡磊.川滇地区地震动预测模型及其对2021年漾濞6.4级地震的适用性[J].地震工程与工程振动,2022,42(1):200-209. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王中伟 胡进军 张辉 靳超越 胡磊 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局工程力学研究所,中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目（U1939210,52078470）；;国家重点研发计划（2018YFC1504401）~~； |
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| 摘 要： | 随着川滇地区强震记录的不断增加,为了建立更符合该区域地震动特征的预测模型,文中基于该区域现有的地震动数据,通过随机效应回归模型建立适用于川滇地区的地震动预测模型;2021年5月21日,云南省大理州漾濞县发生6.4级地震,为了分析文中预测模型对漾濞地震的适用性,首先根据预测模型的适用范围选取合适的漾濞地震数据,计算真实记录的反应谱值与文中模型预测值的残差,通过分析残差研究漾濞地震的反应谱特征与川滇地区其他同震级地震的差异。通过对比分析,文中预测模型在短周期与王玉石等的川滇地区衰减关系存在一定差异,而在中长周期略高于王玉石等的模型,且文中模型能较好的预测漾濞地震,但漾濞地震存在远场PGA衰减较快和中长周期地震动强度相对较高的特点。
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| 关 键 词： | 强震记录 地震动模型 随机效应回归模型 漾濞地震 残差分析 |
Ground motion prediction model in Sichuan-Yunnan region and its applicability to the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi earthquake |
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| WANG Zhongwei,HU Jinjun,ZHANG Hui,JIN Chaoyue,HU Lei.Ground motion prediction model in Sichuan-Yunnan region and its applicability to the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi earthquake[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2022,42(1):200-209. |
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| Authors: | WANG Zhongwei HU Jinjun ZHANG Hui JIN Chaoyue HU Lei |
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| Institution: | (Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering Vibration,Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,Harbin 150080,China) |
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| Abstract: | With the increase of strong ground motions records in Sichuan-Yunnan region,in order to establish a prediction model more in line with the characteristics of ground motion in this region,based on the existing ground mo‐tion data in this region,this paper established a prediction model of ground motion suitable for Sichuan-Yunnan region by stochastic effect regression model;on May 21,2021,a 6.4-magnitude earthquake occurred in Yangbi County,Dali Prefecture,Yunnan Province,in order to analyze the applicability of the prediction model to the Yangbi earthquake,the appropriate Yangbi earthquake records is selected according to the applicable range of the prediction model firstly,the residual between the actual records'response spectrum and the predicted value of the model is calculated,the difference of response spectrum characteristic between the Yangbi earthquake and other earthquakes of the same magnitude in Sichuan-Yunnan region is studied by analyzing the residual.By comparative analysis,the prediction model in this paper is different with the Sichuan-Yunnan region's attenuation relationship by Wang Yushi et al in the short period,and slightly higher than the model of Wang Yushi in the medium and long period,besides,this model can predict the Yangbi earthquake well,but the PGA of Yangbi earthquake in far field attenuates rapidly and the ground motion intensity of medium and long period is relatively high. |
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| Keywords: | strong ground motions ground motion prediction model stochastic effects regression model Yangbi earthquake residual analysis |
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