| 大陆强震危险区可拓方法综合预测应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋淳,王建国,陈化然,韩天锡,汪翠枝.大陆强震危险区可拓方法综合预测应用研究[J].中国地震,2003,19(3):279-286. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋淳 王建国 陈化然 韩天锡 汪翠枝 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 天津市地震局,天津,300201
2. 天津理工学院,天津,300191 |
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| 基金项目： | 地震科学联合基金资助项目 (990 0 4 ) |
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| 摘 要： | 可拓学始于研究问题的不相容性，本文将它引进地震综合预报当中。通过建立强震危险区可拓方法综合预测模型，计算各类区域指标的关联函数，对华北地区、南北地震带进行全时空、有限时空扫描的应用检验，研究孕震区地震活动图像的演化特征，探索对强震危险区进行综合预测的新途径。初步结果说明该方法在对强震危险区的综合预测中有较好的应用前景。
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| 关 键 词： | 可拓学 强震危险区 综合预测模型 关联函数 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-4683(2003)03-0279-08 |
Research on the Application of Extenics Comprehensive Prediction Model for Strong Earthquake Hazard Area in the North-South Seismic Belt |
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| Jiang Chun,Wang Jianguo,Chen Huaran,Han Tianxi,Wang Cuizhi.Research on the Application of Extenics Comprehensive Prediction Model for Strong Earthquake Hazard Area in the North-South Seismic Belt[J].Earthquake Research in China,2003,19(3):279-286. |
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| Authors: | Jiang Chun Wang Jianguo Chen Huaran Han Tianxi Wang Cuizhi |
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| Institution: | Jiang Chun 1) Wang Jianguo 1) Chen Huaran 1) Han Tianxi 2) Wang Cuizhi 1) 1) |
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| Abstract: | The Extenics began from the transform laws and solution methods for incompatible problem studying.This theory for the comprehensive earthquake prediction through establishment of the matter-element model for comprehensive prediction has been introduced. Based on calculating the incidence functions of all various indexes, application and inspection in the North China area and the North-South seismic belt by scanning in the full time |space and finite time |space,we researched the evolvement characteristios for seismic activity picture in the seismogenic zone, explored the new approach of comprehensive prediction for the strong earthquake hazard area. The result that we obtained proving the method having good applied background for comprehensive prediction at the strong earthquake hazard area. |
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| Keywords: | Extenics Strong earthquake hazard area Comprehensive prediction model Incidence function |
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