| 一次较成功的中期地震概率预测实例 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄德瑜,庄昆元.一次较成功的中期地震概率预测实例[J].中国地震,1994,10(1):72-78. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄德瑜 庄昆元 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家地震局分析预报中心，安徽省地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | １９８８年底依据地震活动性资料，运用ＭＹＣＩＮ不精确推理方法，提出了１９８９年及稍长时间的中国大陆中期地震趋势预测概率图，这是一次较成功的中期地震概率预测实例。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震 中期预报 概率图 地震活动性 |
A Rather Successful Prediction Case of Medium-term Earthquake Probability |
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| Huang Deyu, Sun Shihong, Chen Xiuqi, Zhang Guomin, Liu Puxiong.A Rather Successful Prediction Case of Medium-term Earthquake Probability[J].Earthquake Research in China,1994,10(1):72-78. |
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| Authors: | Huang Deyu Sun Shihong Chen Xiuqi Zhang Guomin Liu Puxiong |
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| Abstract: | Based on the seismicity data and by using the MYCIN uncertain reasoning model, at the end of 1988. Our research group completed a medium-term earthquake probability prediction map of China mainland for 1989 and longer. This is a rather successful practical mid-term prediction case. |
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| Keywords: | Seismic activity Uncertain reasoning MYCIN model Mid-term earthquake prediction probability map |
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