| 淮河流域洪水极值非平稳性特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙鹏,孙玉燕,张强,姚蕊,温庆志,王友贞,蒋尚明.淮河流域洪水极值非平稳性特征[J].湖泊科学,2018,30(4):1123-1137. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙鹏 孙玉燕 张强 姚蕊 温庆志 王友贞 蒋尚明 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽师范大学地理与旅游学院;安徽省水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院水利水资源安徽省重点实验室;自然灾害过程与防控研究安徽省省级重点实验室;北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室;北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41601023，41771536）、国家杰出青年科学基金项目（51425903）、地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目（2017-KF-04）、中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放基金项目（IWHR-SKL-201720）和安徽省自然科学基金项目（1808085QD117）联合资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 基于淮河流域9个水文站的月径流量数据,采用Pettitt非参数检验法、GAMLSS模型与洪水频率分析模型等方法,揭示了淮河中上游洪水频率的演变规律,分析基于平稳性和非平稳性条件下的洪水发生强度及洪涝灾害所带来的影响.研究发现:潢川、横排头和蚌埠站点未发生明显变异,其余6个站点发生均值或方差变异,变异时间主要集中在2000年左右.淮河流域的最优拟合分布函数是Weibull;班台、蒋家集和横排头站适宜于非平稳性模型,其余站点选择平稳性模型.各站点非平稳性条件下10年和20年一遇设计流量值与平稳性条件下皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布设计流量值相差不大,但30年一遇、50年一遇和100年一遇的设计流量相差逐渐变大.横排头站和蚌埠站洪水放大因子随着时间增加呈上升趋势且大于1,百年一遇重现期不足80年.各站点年最大洪峰流量与淮河流域、安徽省水灾面积通过了95%或99%的显著性检验.
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| 关 键 词： | 非平稳性 GAMLSS模型 洪水放大因子 重现期 淮河流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/12/14 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/1/11 0:00:00 |
Evaluation on non-stationarity assumption of annual maximum peak flows during 1956-2016 in the Huaihe River Basin |
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| SUN Peng,SUN Yuyan,ZHANG Qiang,YAO Rui,WEN Qingzhi,Wang Youzhen and JIANG Shangming.Evaluation on non-stationarity assumption of annual maximum peak flows during 1956-2016 in the Huaihe River Basin[J].Journal of Lake Science,2018,30(4):1123-1137. |
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| Authors: | SUN Peng SUN Yuyan ZHANG Qiang YAO Rui WEN Qingzhi Wang Youzhen and JIANG Shangming |
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| Institution: | School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, P. R. China;Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy and Water Resources of Anhui Province, Water Resources Research Institute of Anhui Province and Huaihe River China, Bengbu 233000, P. R. China,School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, P. R. China;Anhui Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Process and Prevention, Wuhu 241002, P. R. China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, P. R. China,Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, P. R. China;State Key Laboratory of Surface Process and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, P. R. China,School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, P. R. China;Anhui Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Process and Prevention, Wuhu 241002, P. R. China,School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, P. R. China;Anhui Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Process and Prevention, Wuhu 241002, P. R. China,Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy and Water Resources of Anhui Province, Water Resources Research Institute of Anhui Province and Huaihe River China, Bengbu 233000, P. R. China and Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy and Water Resources of Anhui Province, Water Resources Research Institute of Anhui Province and Huaihe River China, Bengbu 233000, P. R. China |
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| Abstract: | |
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| Keywords: | Nonstationarity GAMLSS model flooding factor reproduction period Huaihe River Basin |
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