| 青海湖水位下降与趋势预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 杨贵林,刘国东.青海湖水位下降与趋势预测[J].湖泊科学,1992,4(3):17-24. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 杨贵林 刘国东 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 青海省水文总站，青海省水文总站 西宁 810001，西宁 810001 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 青海湖是我国最大的内陆半咸水湖,近百年来,特别是有水文记录的30多年来,湖水位持续下降,已引起各有关方面的关注。本文根据水量平衡原理,对湖水位下降的原因进行了探讨:1.青海湖水位差与入湖补给量、耗水量关系密切,其复相关系效高达0.95;2.青海湖多年平均亏水量为4.5×10~8m~3,累积亏水量与湖水位变化趋势完全一致;3.在总耗水量中,人为耗水仅占1％左右。因此,湖水位下降的主要原因是自然因素。此外,本文利用相关分析法,灰色系统、叠加模型,分别对湖水位进行了预测,结果表明相关分析和叠加模型效果较好,1989年实测值与预测值较为接近。最后对未来湖水位下降的极限做了探讨。
|
| 关 键 词： | 青海湖 半咸水湖 水位变化 预测 |
On the water level decline and its tendency in Qinghai Lake |
| |
| Yang Guilin and Liu Guodong.On the water level decline and its tendency in Qinghai Lake[J].Journal of Lake Science,1992,4(3):17-24. |
| |
| Authors: | Yang Guilin and Liu Guodong |
| |
| Institution: | General Hydrological Station of Qinghai Province, Xining 810001 and General Hydrological Station of Qinghai Province, Xining 810001 |
| |
| Abstract: | Qinghai Lake is the largest inland brackish lake in China. Hydrological data show that in the past 100 years or so, especially in the recent 30 years and more the lake level has been declining. This phenomenon has been payed great attention to by the scientists. In the paper, authors try to elucidate the reasons of rapid decline of lake level on the basis of Water balance principle. The results are as follows:
1. The fluctuation of the lake level is closely relative to the supply and loss of the lake water ,with a multi-relative coefficient of 0.95.
2. The multi-annual average shortage of the lake water is 450 million m~3 ,and the accumulative shortage of lake water has the same tendency as the fluctuation of the lake level.
3. The artificial consumption water occupies only about one percent of total loss. Therefore,the main reason for the falling of the lake level is no other than the natural factor. In addition, with the relative analysis ,the grey system and the addition model,the future of the lake level is predicted.
Finally,the limit of the lake level decline is discussed. |
| |
| Keywords: | brackish lake Qinghai Lake water level decline |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《湖泊科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《湖泊科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
